Elite Sire Families in the 2024 Kentucky Derby

Diving into the elite sire families of some 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders

Derby fever is running hot this time of year, so naturally I felt the need to dive into a few of this year’s contenders. While I’ll be putting out my analysis of the full field and the race as a whole later this week, today I wanted to take a closer look at three contenders in particular as a continuation of my series on elite sire families. You can take a look at part one here, part two here, and the family of Lady Be Good here.

To start, we’ll take a look at Change Water, whose sire descendants are responsible for 275 stakes winners worldwide. Though not a stakes winner herself, she was a half-sister to four stakes winners, and her dam, Portage, was a full sister to 1948 champion two-year-old Blue Peter (another full sibling, War Shaft, was the dam of 1958 Sanford Stakes winner Pilot). The dam of G1 Matron Stakes winner Fall Aspen as well well as the useful sire Allen’s Prospect, she is the tail-female ancestor of 11 G1 sires and 24 total stakes sires. Fall Aspen, in turn, was the dam of a remarkable nine stakes winners, four of those at the G1 level - Preakness Stakes winner Timber Country, Gamely Stakes winner Northern Aspen, July Cup winner Hamas, and Grand Prix de Paris winner Fort Wood. Since 2011, her direct tail-female line has produced 80 stakes winners in 919 starters (5.7%), most recently Kentucky Derby contender Just Steel, a son of Triple Crown winner Justify, whose fourth dam is Change Water.

Interestingly, Just Steel’s pedigree features multiple strains of the Lowe families of his first three damsires. His damsire, Fastnet Rock, comes from the same family 2f as Justify’s second damsire Pulpit; his second damsire, Hennessy, is himself repeated as the great-grandsire of Justify; and his third damsire, Affirmed, is from the same genetic branch of family 23b as Justify’s damsire Ghostzapper. Although the cross of Johannesburg over his sire Hennessy has produced just one other stakes winner in 45 starters (4.4%), these other two linebreeding crosses have done quite well - the cross of Pulpit over Fastnet Rock has produced four total stakes winners in 26 starters (15.4%) and the cross of Ghostzapper over Affirmed has produced three total stakes winners in 38 total starters (7.9%).

Just Steel’s dam, G1 Australian 1,000 Guineas winner Irish Lights, is heavily linebred to Hennessy’s family 8c, as Fastnet Rock is out of a daughter of Royal Academy, who is a half-brother to the dam of Hennessy’s sire Storm Cat, also a member of family 8c. Mares bred on this Royal Academy/Storm Cat cross have produced 7.5% stakes winners in 226 starters. Perhaps notably, the cross has not been nearly as prolific at getting racehorses as broodmares, with just 3.9% stakes winners in 898. The reverse of this cross - that of Storm Cat over Royal Academy, - is represented in this year’s Kentucky Derby by Honor Marie.