Kentucky Derby 2025 Pedigree Profiles

Taking a look at the pedigrees for the Kentucky Derby field

Kentucky Derby week is upon us, and the post positions have been drawn. A total of 21 horses have been entered in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, with Baeza as the sole also-eligible.

While pedigree is, at this point, only a minor factor in my personal handicapping process for the Kentucky Derby - the horse as an individual is far more important than names on a page - it can be a useful tool in attempting to project how these horses will fare at the 1 1/4 mile distance and if perhaps there’s more improvement to come. Below, you’ll find my pedigree notes on this group, along with links to the contenders I’ve done deeper dives on in the past, which I hope you’ll find both informative and entertaining as we prepare for Kentucky Derby 151.

1. Citizen Bull

The reigning champion two-year-old started the year with a win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but could only manage fourth of five in the Santa Anita Derby in his most recent start. As I said following his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, this is a horse who raises some distance concerns when it comes to pedigree. Combined with the fact he has to get to the lead from the rail, he’s a horse I have a tough time finding much confidence in at the Kentucky Derby distance.

2. Neoequos

Neoequos was third in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, and the Florida-bred son of Neolithic comes into the race with a modest pedigree that I find fairly interesting. His sire never won a stakes race, but was a son of Harlan’s Holiday out of a mare by Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop and was G1 placed three times in his career, including a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup in his only attempt at ten furlongs. As a sire, Neolithic has been a very respectable Florida sire, getting 77.2% winners and 5.9% stakes winners. Only one of those stakes wins came at over a mile (My Denysse won the 1 1/16 mile Florida Sire My Dear Girl Stakes last November), but there are limited opportunities for a Florida stallion to get a stakes winner at a route.

Neoequos is out of a daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, but Bold Birdie herself never won past 6.5 furlongs, and none of her four foals to race have won at distances greater than that distance, making it difficult to expect her to be a stamina influence here. I lean toward skepticism that Neoequos wants to go ten furlongs, especially in a race like this, but it’s possible that with Belmont Stakes winners on both sides of his pedigree, he could prove those doubts to be mistaken.

3. Final Gambit

This son of Not This Time was a winner of the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park on March 22nd. A homebred for Juddmonte Stables, he’s out of the winning Tapit mare Pachinko, a half-sister to five black type horses including G1 winner Announce, a winner of the 1 1/4 mile Prix Jean Romanet on the turf in France. Final Gambit is one of four stakes winners in just 13 starters by his sire and out of mares carrying Tapit (30.8%). His fourth dam, Zaizafon, was a group stakes winner in England and the dam of G1 2000 Guineas winner Zafonic as well as the multiple G1-siring stallion Zamindar. There are 21 stakes winners going back to Zaizafon, and 17 in 176 starters since January of 2011 (9.7%). Notably, all of that success has come over either turf or synthetic surfaces, so while distance does not figure to be an obstacle for Final Gambit (in fact, I expect him to thrive), there is some question of whether he will be at his best over a traditional dirt surface.

4. Rodriguez

I did a deep dive on this colt after his Wood Memorial win, and my opinion on his aptitude for the Kentucky Derby distance has not changed - there are some question marks on both sides of his pedigree, but I felt the same way about his sire, and while he got an easy lead in the Wood, Rodriguez finished that race with enough left in the tank that I think he could get the distance with the right trip.

5. American Promise

I discussed American Promise following his win in the Virginia Derby, and my feelings on his ability to go the distance have not changed - I think this is a horse who’s bred to get every bit of a mile and a quarter, and I find him to be an interesting contender in this division.

6. Admire Daytona

Japanese-bred Admire Daytona qualified for the Kentucky Derby with his win in the G3 UAE Derby on April 5th. He’s a son of Eclipse champion sprinter Drefong and out of a mare by Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford. Though his first two dams were non-winners in four and two starts, respectively, he traces to multiple G1 winner and blue hen mare Maplejinsky as his third dam, and his fourth dam is 1982 Eclipse champion sprinter Gold Beauty, to whom 30 stakes winners trace, including nine G1 winners. There are three G1 winners at ten furlongs tracing to Gold Beauty - Sky Beauty, Point of Entry, and Pine Island. While Admire Daytona is already a winner at 1 3/16 miles, I do have some concerns about whether he’ll thrive going an extra sixteenth of a mile between all of the sprint influence in his pedigree and the nature of that head-bobbing UAE Derby win.

7. Luxor Cafe

Japanese contender Luxor Cafe comes into the race with a four-race win streak, and earned his invitation to the Kentucky Derby via his dominating win in the Fukuryu Stakes. He’s a son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of the multiple graded stakes winning More Than Ready mare Mary’s Follies, making him a full brother to three-time Japanese G1 winner Cafe Pharoah, who earned all of his G1 wins going a mile on the dirt. He was a winner at up to 1900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles), but was well-beaten in all three attempts at ten furlongs. Mary’s Follies is also the dam of the multiple G1 winning turf miler Regal Glory and of multiple graded stakes winner Night Prowler, a graded stakes winner at 7.5 and 8.5 furlongs on the turf.

While ten furlongs is a bit of a question mark here based on his full brother’s lack of success at the distance, I do expect Luxor Cafe to be effective at the classic distance.

8. Journalism

Since writing about Journalism back in March, he’s added a win in the Santa Anita Derby to his resume and is the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby. His Santa Anita Derby win did nothing to change my opinion that he should continue to stretch out in distance without any problems, and while the waters will get deeper for him, he has to be considered a deserving favorite.

9. Burnham Square

I did a deep dive on Burnham Square following his Blue Grass Stakes victory, and very little has changed since then. The son of Liam’s Map seems to be coming into his own at the right time, and while I don’t consider him to be a horse who’s necessarily bred to run all day, I don’t expect him to struggle with the Kentucky Derby distance.

10. Grande

Grande earned his Kentucky Derby points by finishing second in the Wood Memorial, and will be making his fourth lifetime start in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a son of Curlin out of the graded stakes winning War Front mare Journey Home, who was a winner of the G3 Jimmy Durante Stakes going a mile on the turf as a two-year-old as well as a winner of the Christiana Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf the following year. She’s already produced a graded stakes winner in Ticker Tape Home, a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro who was victorious in last year’s G3 Seaway Stakes going seven furlongs over Woodbine’s all-weather surface.

Journey Home was out of the multiple G1-placed A.P. Indy mare Soul Search, and this colt traces to the excellent Northern Meteor branch of Lowe family 23b. There are 36 stakes winners tracing to Grande’s fifth dam, including the likes of Marsh Side, a G1 winner at 12 furlongs on the turf, and Arkansas Derby winner Nadal. Aside from Marsh Side, the female family has primarily produced milers, but the presence of Curlin on the top of the pedigree should be enough for the Kentucky Derby distance to be in Grande’s wheelhouse, and I think there’s some potential for upside here as well with that impressive female family.

11. Flying Mohawk

Flying Mohawk was second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks but has never raced over a traditional dirt surface. He’s a son of Karakontie, who can get a runner over any surface but certainly leans turf, and out of a mare by Twirling Candy, who was a graded stakes winner over dirt, turf, and synthetic, and was twice G1 placed at ten furlongs over synthetic surfaces. Karakontie is the sire of a G1 winner at ten furlongs on the turf in She Feels Pretty, and Twirling Candy has sired a G1 winner at that distance on the dirt in Gift Box, so I don’t expect the distance to be a problem for Flying Mohawk. Much like the horse he finished behind in the Jeff Ruby, Final Gambit, my primary concern with Flying Mohawk is whether he will thrive over a dirt surface.

12. East Avenue

East Avenue earned his berth in the Kentucky Derby starting gate largely by virtue of a G1 win at two and a second-place effort in the Blue Grass Stakes in his most recent start. In my deep dive on him following his Breeders’ Futurity win, I mentioned that there was some potential cause for scrutiny at the classic distance, and I still feel that way - this is the kind of pedigree that should be capable at the distance, but that I don’t expect to thrive. His dam is a half-sister to Cody’s Wish, who was best at a mile despite being a son of Curlin, as well as to the Medaglia d’Oro full siblings Endorsed and Bocephus. I believe Endorsed could be a good gauge for how East Avenue will fare at the classic distance, as he is a half-sister to East Avenue’s dam by the same sire, and I think it’s key to note that he failed to hit the board in his two attempts at ten furlongs, though he was beaten only 3 1/4 lengths in one of those. His best races, though, came at a mile, and I expect that 8-9 furlong distance to prove to be East Avenue’s best. I believe he would need to get an easy lead - an unlikely (but never impossible) scenario in the Kentucky Derby - in order to effectively stretch his speed out to ten furlongs.

13. Publisher

Publisher earned Kentucky Derby qualifying points in both the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby, finishing fourth and second, respectively, but has yet to break his maiden in seven career starts. A $600,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling, he is a son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of the Proud Citizen mare Indian Pride, a stakes winner and graded stakes placed at seven furlongs who never raced beyond that distance. She was out of the unraced Indian Charlie mare Ms. Cornstalk, who also produced Canadian Champion two- and three-year-old Biofuel, who finished second in the 2010 Coaching Club American Oaks at nine furlongs but never won beyond a mile and a sixteenth. Ms. Cornstalk also produced the multiple stakes winning Johar filly Tu Endie Wei, who never won beyond seven furlongs. While the female line of Publisher’s pedigree leans toward sprinter-milers, his damsire did finish second in the Kentucky Derby, and there’s no question of stamina with his sire, who has produced multiple G1 winners at ten furlongs and beyond (albeit all on turf). Like many in this prospective group, I’m not convinced ten furlongs will be his best distance, but I don’t think it hurts him, either.

14. Tiztastic

Tiztastic cemented his place in the Kentucky Derby field with a win in the March 22nd Louisiana Derby, his first stakes win on the dirt. He’s a son of Travers Stakes winner Tiz the Law and out of an unraced daughter of Tapit who had already produced stakes winner Interpolate by Into Mischief. While Tiztastic’s best sibling achieved her greatest success at seven furlongs, and his dam’s best sibling, Shumoos, was a group winning sprinter in Great Britain who finished second in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint, the presence of Tiz the Law helps add some stamina here. Tiz the Law also brings in the influence of Shumoos’ sire Distorted Humor, as Tiz the Law’s sire Constitution is out of a Distorted Humor mare. While there’s plenty of speed on the bottom of this pedigree, the fact that, unlike the rest of the field, Tiztastic needs to only stretch out an additional sixteenth of a mile gives me confidence that the distance will not hurt his chances in the Kentucky Derby.

15. Render Judgment

Render Judgment was third in the Gun Runner Stakes as a two-year-old and second in the Virginia Derby this year. He’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame out of a daughter of the A.P. Indy stallion Commissioner, a winner of the ten furlong Hawthorne Gold Cup who finished second in the 2014 Belmont Stakes.

While there is no other black type under Render Judgment’s first two dams, his third dam Valse Musette is the dam of Canadian champion Basqueian, a winner of two-thirds of the Canadian Triple Crown, suggesting some potential stamina on the bottom line here. Valse Musette is also the second dam of G1 winning turf miler Karelian. I think Render Judgment will appreciate every bit of the distance here.

16. Coal Battle

I talked about Coal Battle’s intriguing pedigree following his Springboard Mile win, and he has continued to be competitive on the Kentucky Derby trail, with wins in the Smarty Jones and Rebel Stakes and a third-place effort in the Arkansas Derby. As I mentioned in that piece, he’s a horse I have a tough time being particularly confident in when it comes to the ten furlong distance, as his sire was best at a mile and his dam was a sprinter, but I think he’s a horse with a lot of talent who will continue to outrun what appears at a glance to be a modest pedigree.

17. Sandman

Last seen winning the Arkansas Derby, Sandman is another horse who seems to be figuring things out at the perfect time. I wrote a full pedigree profile on Sandman last week, and while I have some concerns about whether he will be able to work out a trip, I think he’s one of the top contenders in this year’s Kentucky Derby and I think he’s a very exciting horse for the summer and fall, as well.

18. Sovereignty

Sovereignty was a winner of the Fountain of Youth and was most recently seen finishing second to Tappan Street in the Florida Derby. A son of Into Mischief out of the unraced Bernardini mare Crowned, he’s the third foal to race out of his dam and the second winner. A full sister, Jane Grey, was a winner of her debut going seven furlongs in a Saratoga maiden special weight. His second dam, Mushka, is a daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker who was a graded stakes winning two-year-old and a G1 winner at four, winning the nine furlong Spinster Stakes via DQ. She was also a graded stakes winner at 1 3/8 miles on the turf in the Glens Falls Handicap. As with most Into Mischief offspring, I have some doubts about whether ten furlongs will ultimately prove to be Sovereignty’s best game, but the presence of stallions such as Bernardini and Empire Maker on the bottom helps infuse some stamina into his pedigree.

19. Chunk of Gold

This colt finished second in both the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby, and he’s a horse who seems to be getting a little bit of buzz as a potential longshot contender in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Sold for just $2,500 as a yearling, this son of Woodward Stakes winner Preservationist is out of a half-sister to My Boy Jack, a winner of both the Lexington and Southwest Stakes in 2018 who ultimately finished a fairly respectable 5th in the Kentucky Derby. Chunk of Gold’s full sister, Band of Gold, was a winner of last year’s Martha Washington Stakes.

Chunk of Gold’s sire was a graded stakes winner at ten furlongs in the Suburban Stakes, and while his dam was unplaced in her only career start, she was a daughter of Cairo Prince, who never raced beyond a mile and an eighth but was a son of Pioneerof the Nile, who was second in the 2008 Kentucky Derby and sired Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Last year, Preservationist had a Triple Crown presence in the form of Antiquarian, a winner of the Peter Pan Stakes who ultimately finished fifth in the Belmont Stakes. There are some minor questions about the Kentucky Derby distance for Chunk of Gold, but I lean toward thinking he’ll handle it.

20. Owen Almighty

The Tampa Bay Derby winner has had a bit of drama surrounding him in the Kentucky Derby picture, but it has been stated that his connections are planning to enter the Derby after earlier reports that he was off the trail. He’s a son of Speightstown and is the first foal out of a graded stakes placed daughter of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern. While Speightstown is capable of getting a route runner, as the sire of a Travers winner and a Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, he himself was a sprinter and tends to get more sprinter-miler types. On the other side of the pedigree, Bayern was able to stretch his speed in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which could potentially add a little more stamina here, but Owen Almighty’s fading effort in the Blue Grass Stakes, combined with his trainer’s earlier announcement that he would be targeting the Pat Day Mile, have me doubting whether this colt will do his best running at the mile and a quarter.

21. Baeza (AE)

When it comes to being well-bred for the Triple Crown series, it’s hard to be better than Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza. Baeza is a son of multiple G1 winner McKinzie and out of the Big Brown mare Puca, the dam of 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. While McKinzie was never a winner at greater than nine furlongs, he was twice G1 placed at that distance and is a son of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. If he makes the Kentucky Derby field, I don’t expect the ten furlongs to be an issue.