Derby Prospects: Forte

The likely two-year-old champion of 2022 is bred for the limelight

Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Forte is currently the Kentucky Derby points leader and the prohibitive favorite for 2022 Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Male. He has everything you could ask for in a pedigree, being by a top stallion and out of a stakes-winning mare by a great broodmare stallion who is also from one of the best female families in the breed.

Forte is by the Medaglia d'Oro stallion Violence, a $600k yearling who was brilliant in his first three races, including the G1 CashCall Futurity, but fractured a sesamoid while running second in the Fountain of Youth and retired. Between his pedigree, conformation, and racetrack performance, it made sense to give him a chance as a stallion, so he retired to Hill 'n' Dale to stand for $15,000 in 2014. That price point proved to be a bargain, as Violence was the leading first-crop sire of 2017 with 6 black type horses (9.2% of runners) and total progeny earnings of $1,556,274, prompting a stud fee increase to $25,000. He was then the leading second-crop sire of 2018, with 19 black type horses (12.8% of runners), including two graded stakes winners, so his stud fee was again raised to $40,000. After a slight lull in 2019, when he was the third-leading third-crop sire (although he produced his first G1 winner in Argentina), his stud fee was brought back down to $25,000 for 2020. That year proved to be a breakthrough year for him as a stallion, as he sired his first three North American G1 winners - Volatile, No Parole, and Dr. Schivel. He will stand for $50,000 in 2023 after adding Forte to his list of G1 winners in 2022 and ending the year among the top 15 stallions in the country by progeny earnings.

Violence is from a massive female family, tracing back to Hall of Fame champion Sky Beauty. Sky Beauty herself was the daughter of G1 winner Maplejinsky, whose other descendants include Breeders' Cup Distaff winner Pleasant Home, multiple G1 winners Pine Island, Point of Entry, and Tale of Ekati, and numerous other graded stakes winners. Maplejinsky was the daughtert of 1982 champion sprinter Gold Beauty, who was also the dam of French and English champion Dayjur. Gold Beauty had four stakes-winning half-siblings out of her stakes-winning dam Stick to Beauty, including graded stakes winner The Prime Minster and multiple black type producer Storm Beauty. This Lowe family 1g traces back to 1826 1000 Guineas winner Problem, whose other descendants include the Oaks winner and influential broodmare Canterbury Pilgrim among many others.

Forte also comes from Lowe family 1 via family 1x, tracing to La Troienne. He comes from the same female family as three of the last four Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Males - he, Corniche, Essential Quality, and Game Winner all trace back to La Troienne's granddaughter Striking.

This family has also seen plenty of Kentucky Derby success, with horses such as Super Saver (7th dam Striking), Go For Gin (5th dam La Troienne), and Sea Hero (5th dam La Troienne) winning America’s most storied race. La Troienne’s son Bimelech was the first member of the family to try the Run for the Roses as the heavy favorite in the 1940 Kentucky Derby, but he finished second to longshot Gallahadion before going on the win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. In 1989, the great Easy Goer (5th dam La Troienne) finished second in the Derby, and in 2006 Bluegrass Cat (7th dam Striking) repeated that feat.

Forte is the first foal out of his dam, Queen Caroline, who was a multiple stakes winner by Blame. Blame has been off to a stellar start as a broodmare sire with 11 stakes winners from 114 starters (9.6%) out of his daughters to date and an AEI of 1.82. All three foals by Violence out of Blame mares are winners.

Queen Caroline was out of the stakes-winning Forestry mare Queen's Plaza, who also produced multiple stakes placed winner K P Slickem and G3 placed Queen Teuta. Queen Caroline was the only stakes winner out of her dam, but her granddam Jeano (the fourth dam of Forte) was a multiple graded stakes winner and the dam of the excellent broodmare Contrive, who produced 2005 Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Folklore (the granddam of Japanese Triple Crown winner Contrail), as well as stakes winner Divided Attention and multiple stakes placed winner Delightful Quality, the dam of 2020 Champion Two-Year-Old Essential Quality. Forte's fifth dam, Basie, was a G1 winner.

In addition to the linebreeding to family 1 via Violence, Queen Caroline, and El Prado (a member of family 1l), Forte also exhibits linebreeding to the prolific family 13c via the sires of his second and third dams - Forestry and Seattle Slew, respectively, - Mr. Prospector (who appears 4x5 in his pedigree), and Medaglia d'Oro's damsire Bailjumper.

Additionally, he doubles up on the brilliant broodmare Special via his damsire Blame (whose third dam is Special) and his great-great-grandsire Sadlers' Wells (whose second dam is Special). There have only been 20 horses bred on the Sadlers' Wells/Blame cross, of which 3 (15%) are stakes winners. The reverse has been tried twice as often, and has produced 12.5% stakes winners, led by G1 winner Fault.

Medaglia d'Oro and his sons have also had a lot of success with mares carrying Blame's sire Arch, with 6 stakes winners from 45 starters (13.33%). Interestingly, all six are by different stallions - Violence, Bolt d'Oro, Astern, Mshawish, Fast Anna, and Medaglia d'Oro himself.