Pedigree Profile: American Promise
The D. Wayne Lukas trainee was impressive in the Virginia Derby
The Virginia Derby was held on dirt as a Kentucky Derby prep for the first time this weekend, and it was American Promise who would emerge victorious in a minor upset. As the 7-1 third choice in the field of seven, American Promise stalked odds-on favorite Getaway Car in the early stakes, took over under his own power approaching the turn and opened up on the field to coast home by 7 3/4 lengths, earning himself 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points and setting a new track record of 1:46.41 for the one-turn mile and an eighth. Nik Juarez was aboard the three-year-old son of Justify for the first time.
Purchased for $750,000 by BC Stables out of the 2023 Keeneland September yearling sale and trained by D. Wayne Lukas, American Promise had only a single lifetime win coming into the Virginia Derby, which he achieved in gate-to-wire fashion on December 29th of last year in his sixth career start. He opened up the year with an eventful run in the Southwest Stakes, breaking slowly and eventually crossing the wire sixth before being demoted to seventh for interference with an opponent in the late stages of the race. He fared slightly better in the Risen Star, tracking midpack and getting as close as third before yielding late in his most recent start prior to this victory.
American Promise is out of the winning Tapit mare Tapella, who is already the dam of graded stakes winner Hoosier Philly by Into Mischief. Tapella’s dam, Princess Arabella, was undefeated in three starts, including the Sunland Park Oaks, and is also the dam of multiple graded stakes placed runner Ulele by Candy Ride. She was a daughter of Haskell Stakes winner Any Given Saturday and out of the Thunder Gulch mare Tortuga Lady, who also produced graded stakes placed Dyna’s Lassie (Dynaformer) and stakes placed Super Sky (Sky Mesa). Another daughter, Sundown (by Tapit), is the dam of the graded stakes placed Audible colt Moonlight. Tortuga Lady was a full sister to 2001 Kentucky Derby runner-up Invisible Ink.
An interesting aspect of American Promise’s pedigree is that he carries three crosses of A.P. Indy, two of those via Pulpit. He joins G3 winner Champion’s Dream and G1 placed Just a Touch as black type runners by Justify out of mares by Tapit, a son of Justify’s second damsire Pulpit. The cross of Justify over Tapit creates inbreeding not only to Pulpit but also to the excellent broodmare Foggy Note, the dam of Relaunch - whose daughter Baby Zip produced Justify’s damsire Ghostzapper, - and the fourth dam of Tapit.
Additionally, the cross of Justify with Tapit mares creates six crosses of Nijinsky. Both Tapit and Scat Daddy are inbred to Nijinsky via his daughter State (the third dam of Tapit’s sire Pulpit and the fourth dam of Scat Daddy’s sire Johannesburg) and their female line, as both are out of second dams by Nijinsky. Justify gets two additional crosses of Nijinsky from his dam - his second dam is a daughter of Pulpit and his third dam is a daughter of the Nijinsky son Baldski.
While this cross has been successful, the general trend to date has been for Justify’s best offspring to be less inbred than he himself was. With a COI of 3.16%, Justify is the most inbred Triple Crown winner, and he has yet to produce a G1 winner with a COI greater than 2.97% (that being Hard to Justify). American Promise’s COI is 4.66%, making him the most inbred graded stakes winner by his sire (although Justify’s graded stakes placed runner Pilot Commander has a COI of 4.8%). The other two black type runners on the Justify/Tapit cross - Just a Touch and Champion’s Dream - have COI’s of 4.77% and 3.83%, respectively.
American Promise is bred to get the ten furlong distance and beyond, as his sire was a Belmont Stakes winner and his damsire has four Belmont Stakes-winning sons. His Hall of Fame trainer certainly knows how to get a horse home on the sport’s biggest stages, with four Kentucky Derbies, seven Preaknesses, and four Belmont Stakes wins to his credit. It appears that American Promise is getting good at the right time, and it will be interesting to see if the big colt will continue to improve moving forward this season.