Special Edition: Breeders' Cup Analysis

Handicapping the Breeders' Cup races for today and tomorrow

It’s been a tumultuous week, but for now, let’s try and focus on the two days of competitive races we have in store. Today and tomorrow mark the 40th edition of the Breeders’ Cup, and like most of us who follow this sport, I’ve been poring over my past performances for days at this point. I’ve done some video analysis for today’s races over on Trust the Prophets, and you can click on the name of each race to be taken to a video where I talk about each contender, but I wanted to do a write-up that included Saturday’s card as well. Speaking of Trust the Prophets, we’re also doing a YouTube live stream starting at 3:30pm ET today and staying on the air until after the Sprint tomorrow. I’ll be on for all of today’s races and waking up early to cover the 4am shift in the morning (and maybe popping on here and there throughout the day), so make sure to stop by and say hi whenever you get the chance! We have some great hosts and guests lined up for what should be a really fun couple of days.

For the sake of brevity, I’ll try to keep this to a paragraph about each race, and then close with my top three picks in order of preference.

Breeders’ Cup Friday Selections:

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

There looks to be quite a bit of speed in here, as one might expect. Big Evs is the morning line favorite and looks to be a key contender, for sure, coming off a win in the G2 Flying Childers Stakes. He’s going to have company on the front, though, from the likes of Crimson Advocate, No Nay Mets, and Tiger Belle to his inside, and Slider from the outside. I think that Givemethebeatboys could get a nice trip tucking in behind the speedier types to his inside, and like the cut back to the distance of his debut victory.

Selections: #5 Givemethebeatboys - #4 Big Evs - #1 Crimson Advocate

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

On paper, this race goes through the morning line favorite Tamara, and I’m not going to try and beat her. She’s the most logical single in this sequence if you’re playing horizontals, but there could be some options for value underneath. Although morning line second-choice Candied seems like the most likely runner-up to me, I’m willing to give Brightwork another shot around two turns if she’s around that 12-1 morning line price, though I’m not interested if she gets bet down. I’m also intrigued by Esprit Enchante stretching out as a horse to use in trifectas and superfectas, though I don’t see her as a win contender.

Selections: #7 Tamara - #1 Candied - #9 Brightwork

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

This is the kind of race where I could make a case for over half of the field, but I have to start by saying I’m thrilled to see OBS April highlight Dreamfyre in this spot. I think she’ll get the lead from the outside, but this is a tough group and I’m not sure if she’s as good routing on the turf as she was sprinting on the dirt in her first two starts. I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see her hold on for a piece of this after setting the pace. Porta Fortuna and Carla’s Way seem to be the leading European contenders, and I’ll give a slight nod to the former between the two of them, since she’s coming off a G1 win. Laulne and Les Pavots are just a step behind them based on Timeform Ratings, but could also figure here. She Feels Pretty was brilliant in the Natalma; I think she’s the best of the Americans in here, and I think she’ll get a perfect stalking trip. I’ll take her over the Europeans, of which only Les Pavots has contested the mile distance. Others such as Hard to Justify and Buchu deserve a long look, as well, with both coming in off victories in their most recent preps.

Selections: #11 She Feels Pretty - #6 Porta Fortuna - #9 Carla’s Way

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

I have been very high on The Wine Steward throughout his career, and though he got beaten by Locked last time out, I’m not jumping ship now. I love his steadily improving speed figures and the tenacity he showed in that last start. However, Locked deserves to be the morning line favorite and is the horse to beat in here, in my opinion. Although Timberlake won his most recent prep in the slop, I think he’s a legit contender in here. The Baffert duo of Prince of Monaco and Muth scare me, but I’m not convinced of the quality of the California two-year-olds at this point, so I’ll let them beat me. If Fierceness drifts up to closer to 12-1, he could be interesting getting a dry track for the first time, but the 6-1 morning line is way too short for me to bet that he’ll bounce back from his Champagne non-effort and put on a performance like he did on debut.

Selections: #1 The Wine Steward - #6 Locked - #4 Timberlake

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Another race that’s pretty tough for me to parse, but the race starts with morning line favorite River Tiber, who absolutely has to be respected but is stretching out from six furlongs to a mile. I’ll give a slight edge to Unquestionable, who is by the same sire in Wootton Bassett but gets a little extra stamina on the bottom from Sea the Stars. His 102 Timeform Rating from his last start is the highest in the field. Of the Americans, Endlessly has the home field advantage and has done nothing wrong in three starts. For some longshots to use underneath, I think Tok Tok is interesting with blinkers on and could stalk the likely pacesetter My Boy Prince, while Stay Hot is bred for the turf, as a half to graded stakes winner Prerequisite, and should also be forwardly placed.

Selections: #8 Unquestionable - #9 Endlessly - #2 River Tiber

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Selections:

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

This race is Cody Wish’s race to lose, and I have a hard time seeing that happening. Zozos looks like he should set the pace in here, though Charge It, Skippylongstocking, and National Treasure could all put some heat on him. Skippylongstocking has the fastest last-out Beyer in the field, and put in a big effort off a layoff in the Harlan’s Holiday last December, so I expect him to be a factor here, and I think Zozos, who is a perfect 3-for-3 at the distance, will be able to hang on for a piece.

Selections: #3 Cody’s Wish - #6 Skippylongstocking - #4 Zozos

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

This race looks pretty straightforward to me - Inspiral rates well above the rest of the field on Timeform, and was absolutely dazzling in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes last time out, her second win in a row at the highest level of competition. I think she’s a very clear favorite here and could be a potential single. I think a mile and a quarter might be a bit too far for In Italian, who could get some company up front from Fev Rover. The three-year-old Warm Heart looks like a very talented runner and is coming in off back-to-back G1 scores. Didia has done very little wrong in her career and I like that she has a win over the Santa Anita surface.

Selections: #6 Inspiral - #2 Warm Heart - #9 Didia

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

This is one of the races where I think the pace scenario is going to play a massive role in the outcome, although sometimes these California Breeders’ Cup races have been noticeably speed-favoring. Society has been dynamite in her last two starts, but she has also gotten a fairly easy lead in those, and while she could win, I don’t trust her in this spot with a horse like Eda, who is also adding blinkers, to press her. I think the race is going to set up beautifully for Goodnight Olive to repeat, and the more I look at this race, the more I like her. I expect Society will hold on for a piece of the prize, and could get the job done if speed is carrying the way it has in the past, and Matareya is a solid horse to use underneath, but I’m pretty content with Goodnight Olive as a clear top choice here.

Selections: #1 Goodnight Olive - #7 Society - #4 Matareya

Breeders’ Cup Mile

This race is stacked with quality, and I think there are a few logical directions you could go in here. Songline has been very good this year, with Timeform Ratings above 120 in her last three starts, and she’s a very deserving morning line favorite. Mawj is the expected pacesetter in here and already has a win in her first start stateside, having taken the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland. This will be her second start off the layoff and she has to be taken seriously, although longshot Astronomer could be a thorn in her side on the front end if Ryan Moore chooses to send. The veteran Casa Creed should get a beautiful stalking trip in behind them, and he’s as good as ever this year. Unlike in years past, he’s coming into the Breeders’ Cup off a layoff, and I love that choice, as he put up 104 Beyers twice last year coming off a break. At 8-1, I think you have to give him a good shot, though the competition is fierce. Although the outside post is a bit of a concern, Master of the Seas looked great in the Woodbine Mile and his 125 Timeform Rating at Ascot is the highest of any horse in the field.

Selections: #10 Songline - #6 Mawj - #3 Casa Creed

Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Another race with a pace scenario that I think could compromise some of the favorites if the track is playing fair, this Distaff looks like the best chance Clairiere has had to pull off a win. She’s been beaten less than a length in the last two editions, and I’m hoping people will jump ship off that career-poor effort in the Personal Ensign. Notably, she was also well-beaten in that prep prior to last year’s Distaff, where she was beaten just a head by Malathaat and Blue Stripe. I have a lot of respect for Idiomatic, who has been on a roll this year, but I think horses like Adare Manor and Randomized hurt her chances. Though Idiomatic has rated a little in the past, the fact that she breaks to the inside of her pace rivals makes that a bit more difficult. Search Results is coming into this race off a win and should get first jump on the pacesetters in here.

Selections: #9 Clairiere - #6 Search Results - #4 Idiomatic

Breeders’ Cup Turf

The Turf should be the headlining event of the weekend with the kind of worldwide talent that’s gathered for this race. Mostahdaf is the morning line favorite at 5-2, and is as good of a place to start as any of the contenders in here. He’s coming in off back-to-back G1 wins in which he got Timeform Ratings of 128 and 129. It is worth noting that he has never won at a mile and a half on the turf, though he was a winner at the distance in a G3 race on synthetic and finished second in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes going 12 furlongs on the turf, so you can’t count him out based on that. Auguste Rodin is probably the best three-year-old in the world, and it’s going to be a thrill to see him line up here. He’s either won or finished way up the track in every race since his debut, so it’s a bit of a question mark which version of Auguste Rodin will show up in here, but you have to think he’s coming into it the right way off that win in the Irish Champion Stakes. King of Steel finished a length behind him in there and then came back to win the Champion Stakes at Ascot, but Auguste has beaten him on three occasions and was eased the one time he didn’t. Also of interest in this field are Onesto, who ties with Mostahdaf for the highest last-out Timeform Rating in the field for his third place effort in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, although he was well beaten by Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion. Up to the Mark chose this spot over the Mile, so Todd Pletcher must have some confidence in him at the distance - his highest speed figure to date did come in his longest race, but a mile and a half is a different game from the mile and a quarter of the Manhattan. He should be coming at the end, but I’m not sure he’s as good as the top European contenders.

Selections: #5 Auguste Rodin - #9 Mostahdaf - #2 Onesto

Breeders’ Cup Classic

There are plenty of races this weekend where I could make a case for any horse in the field, but this is one where I feel like my default stance is to make a case against every horse in the field. Arabian Knight beat a pretty salty field in the Pacific Classic, but I think he and Saudi Crown hurt each other’s chances in this spot. I don’t think White Abarrio wants a mile and a quarter, and Zandon doesn’t seem to like winning, though I think he’s the best show bet in the field. Proxy can be very good when he decides to show up, but he’s not always reliable, and Bright Future, who beat him last time, was running in allowance company for most of this year, so is he really good enough? Dreamlike ran a huge figure in the Pennsylvania Derby, but I’m not convinced that race was any good. Senor Buscador and Clapton are hard-knocking types who rarely fail to come with their run, but also might be a step behind G1 quality. Derma Sotogake hasn’t been seen since the Kentucky Derby and is another one who could be close to the pace, as he was in the UAE Derby. Missed the Cut is cutting back for this but is another who looks like he could be just a bit too slow, which leaves Ushba Tesoro as a pretty clear choice for me. He’s riding a six-race win streak, including the Dubai World Cup, and got an easy prep for this race last time out. Underneath of him, though, I’m mostly throwing darts, but will assume that Zandon does what he always does and picks up a piece, and maybe Dutrow really has just made White Abarrio a completely different horse under his care, but 4-1 is a bit short for me (and could be even shorter with the defection of Arcangelo), so I’ll throw in Saudi Crown and hope a potentially speed-favoring dirt track does him some favors.

Selections: #8 Ushba Tesoro - #2 Zandon - #6 Saudi Crown

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

For a turf sprint, there’s not a whole lot of speed signed on here, and Live In The Dream certainly looks like the fastest on paper. He got beat going a half furlong longer in the Woodford Stakes for his U.S. debut after setting ridiculous fractions of 20.97 and 43.67. I don’t think he’ll need to go quite that fast in here, as Caravel hasn’t been as speedy in 2023 as she was in 2022, although Nobals won’t let him get away with any kind of easy lead. Live In The Dream’s 123 Timeform for his win in the Nunthorpe Stakes is clearly best in here, and he makes a lot of sense to me. I do think Arzak looks like a horse who could be coming into his own at the right time, and he’s got the kind of versatile running style that should let him get a good trip even from the outside post. Motorious has never been off the board in the U.S. and has two wins over the Santa Anita turf, though both of those came on the downhill course. His three consecutive triple-digit Beyers make him a major contender in here.

Selections: #12 Arzak - #5 Live In The Dream - #10 Motorious

Breeders’ Cup Sprint

This is a wide open race to close out the Breeders' Cup, and while Elite Power deserves to be favored, 9-5 is just a bit too short for me on a horse who lost his last prep and might be better second off the layoff. Though he's beaten Gunite both times they met at this distance, I wouldn't be surprised if the younger Gunite is coming into his own at the end of his four-year-old season. The mile was probably too far for this horse, who will have the luxury of sitting just off Speed Boat Beach from his outside draw. Though lightly raced, Speed Boat Beach has been excellent in every start except last year's Juvenile Turf Sprint, and Baffert knows how to win this race. For a sprint race, there doesn't look to be any other need-the-lead types, so I think he'll get the trip he wants on the front, though he'll face some pressure (as he has in most of his races). You have to respect The Chosen Vron, who's put together an 8-race win streak, but most of those were against Cal-breds, and his best Beyer figures have come while going a bit longer than this. Dr. Schivel won this race in 2021, but seems to be as good as ever at age five if that victory in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship is anything to go on. 

Selections: #9 Gunite - #8 Elite Power - #2 Dr. Schivel

Wishing a safe and prosperous Breeders’ Cup to all! I’ll be back on Monday with a look at the pedigree of either the Juvenile, Turf, or Classic winner.