2024 Kentucky Derby Analysis

Taking a look at pedigrees and projections for the 2024 Kentucky Derby

We’re just a couple of days out from the 2024 Kentucky Derby! There’s a solid field of three-year-olds entered to line up in the starting gate this Saturday, and there’s no dearth of angles, questions, and opinions about the race, but naturally I have to throw mine out there into the void of the internet as well.

At this point in the Kentucky Derby picture, pedigree is quite far down my list of handicapping factors - it can at least give a few small insights into a horse’s distance capacity and overall talent, but the horse as an individual is a far more important factor when it comes to answering the vital questions such as the mile and a quarter distance, whether a horse still has improvement in their form, and how they’ll handle the chaos of a twenty horse field.

So, unlike last year, I have some opinions on the handicapping side of things as well, which I’ll share at the end, but the bulk of this post will be pedigree information that you may or may not find worth incorporating into your analysis. For the most part, this information is presented for entertainment and for the sake of seeing the various ways one can breed a Kentucky Derby starter. While handicapping opinions (or mine, at least) are always subject to change on a whim, for the sake of content I’ve at least dialed in the horses I’m most interested in betting in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Horse-by-Horse

1. Dornoch

Dornoch is a full brother to Mage, and thus has a fascinating pedigree that you can read about in depth here. Distance should be no issue for this colt based on pedigree, and I think he’s one of the few horses who the inside draw doesn’t inconvenience. He’s going to the front from there, and it will be a matter of who decides to go with him and how far he can take them. With a return to his preferred front-running style, we should see a better effort than he had in the Blue Grass last time out, but he’ll need to show significant improvement to be a win contender. He’s proven in races like the Remsen that he doesn’t mind a fight, but the big red flag with him is that he’s had trouble changing leads in most of his races - a quirk that will not serve him well here. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hang around for a paycheck in the Derby, I’m not interested in playing him on top.

2. Sierra Leone

I went deep on Sierra Leone’s pedigree here, and as I mentioned in that post, I think this horse has a world of talent but is going to be tough to trust in a race like the Kentucky Derby. I worry that his deep-closing style and residual quirkiness might be too much for him to overcome in a field of 20 horses and the general chaos of Derby day. He’s certainly bred to be elite, though, as a son of Gun Runner out of the G1 Alcibiades winner Heavenly Love, a daughter of Malibu Moon. As you’re likely aware by now, Sierra Leone’s second dam, Darling My Darling, is also the second dam of Forever Young (as well as Northern Flame, who picked up some Kentucky Derby qualifying points this year).

The Gun Runner/Malibu Moon cross has gotten four stakes winners in just nine starters, including G1 Breeders’ Futurity winner Locked. I took an extra deep dive into those nine starters and the outstanding success of this cross in the post linked above, and I recommend checking that out if you have any interest in nicking stats.

Whether Sierra Leone can overcome traffic and immaturity to win the Kentucky Derby or not, I expect that he’ll be a serious force to be reckoned with for the rest of the year.

3. Mystik Dan

This son of Goldencents was a dominant winner of the Southwest Stakes over a sloppy track, and his connections are almost certainly praying for rain this year. While an off track would certainly help his chances, I’m not convinced that this colt wants anything to do with the mile and a quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby. His sire was 17th in the 2013 Derby, and his foals have an average winning distance of 6.5 furlongs.

There is a little bit of stamina on the bottom of Mystik Dan’s pedigree, as he’s out of a mare by Travers Stakes winner Colonel John (one of two starters in this year’s Derby out of daughters of that stallion), and his second damsire is the Brazilian-bred Siphon, a winner of multiple G1 races at ten furlongs. The cross of Goldencents over Colonel John is an extension of the very useful Into Mischief/Tiznow cross that has gotten 8.1% stakes winners in 86 starters, but I don’t think that Mystik Dan is going to be adding a G1 winner at ten furlongs to that statistic.

4. Catching Freedom

There’s very little question that the Louisiana Derby winner should handle the extra sixteenth of a mile he’ll contend with in the Kentucky Derby, as I discussed in my pedigree profile on him. He’s a son of Constitution, who faded to last after setting the pace in his only try at the classic distance but is the sire of Tiz the Law, a two-time G1 winner at ten furlongs, as well as five G1 winners at 1 3/16 miles or greater in Chile, including 1 3/4 mile San Juan Capistrano Stakes winner Breakpoint.

Catching Freedom has plenty of stamina on the bottom, as well, as his dam is a stakes winner by Pioneerof the Nile, a son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker who finished second in the 2009 Kentucky Derby and, of course, sired Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. That mare, Catch My Drift, has had two other foals to race, both stakes placed runners, so there’s plenty to like about Catching Freedom’s pedigree and race record as he comes into the Kentucky Derby.

5. Catalytic

Catalytic’s sire, Catalina Cruiser, has yet to sire a stakes winner, so it would be quite the story if this colt managed to break through in the most famous North American horse race, but that seems rather unlikely. Though Catalina Cruiser was a son of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, he himself never raced past 1 1/16 miles, and he has yet to make much of a mark as a sire.

Catalytic’s female family is quite exceptional, as he traces to the great broodmare She’s a Winner as his third dam. That mare produced 2006 Kentucky Derby runner-up Super Saver among her five black type runners, and was a full sister to the dam of 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. However, Catalytic’s dam, One Show Only, hasn’t had nearly that kind of success as a broodmare - in three other starters, she’s produced only a single winner.

It is quite interesting that Catalina Cruiser’s best runner to date is from the same female family as his damsire, Mineshaft, but interesting pedigree or not, I don’t think Catalytic becomes his sire’s first stakes winner this weekend.

6. Just Steel

Just Steel has a fantastic and fascinating pedigree, which you can read about in depth in this piece on elite sire families in this year’s Derby. His dam, Irish Lights, was a G1 winning miler in Australia and is a daughter of the brilliant sprinter Fastnet Rock, who tends to be a speed influence but is the damsire of G1 winning routers such as Warm Heart, so all hope is not lost for Just Steel getting the Kentucky Derby distance. His sire, Justify, was of course a Triple Crown winner, and he has already sired a G1 winner at ten furlongs in Aspen Grove. Just Steel is inbred 4x3 to Hennessy, a G1 winning Juvenile who also tends to be a bit more of a sprinter/miler influence, so it’s a bit of a toss-up on pedigree whether ten furlongs will prove to be his best game. I lean toward skepticism about whether he’ll thrive at the classic distance.

7. Honor Marie

Physical stamina should not be an issue for Honor Marie, as while his sire Honor Code finished third in his only attempt at the classic distance, he is the sire of a Jockey Club Gold Cup winner and was himself a son of Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy. Honor Marie is out of a stakes placed turf miler by Smart Strike who has produced three winners from three other starters, including G2 Bourbon Stakes runner-up Abarta. This A.P. Indy/Smart Strike cross has gotten 5.7% stakes winner in 900 starters, including G1 Hollywood Gold Cup winner First Dude.

There’s some interesting inbreeding here to Crimson Saint, the dam of Honor Marie’s second damsire Royal Academy and the second dam of Honor Code’s damsire Storm Cat. Notably, this inbreeding pattern of Storm Cat over Royal Academy has gotten just 3.5% stakes winners in 1,108 starters, compared to 4.4% stakes winners from all starters with Storm Cat in the top half of the pedigree, so it doesn’t appear as though it’s a particularly beneficial cross. Honor Marie has been getting a lot of “wise guy” attention in this year’s Derby, and while I respect him, I think this is a horse who is going to have the same obstacles to overcome as Sierra Leone, without the same degree of raw ability at this point in his career. I’d be curious to see how he does down the line in a race like the Travers.

8. Just a Touch

The Blue Grass runner-up has been on a continually improving pattern in his three career starts. Like his sire, Justify, he was unraced at two, but he’s done very little wrong so far, as a runner-up to Deterministic in the Gotham before being defeated a length and a half by Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass. He’s more tactical than Sierra Leone, which could give him an edge in this race, and being out of a Tapit mare, stamina is not a question. That mare, Touching Beauty, has been a bit of a disappointing producer, as while she has gotten five winners in six other foals to race, Just a Touch is most certainly her best to date. She is the dam of a black-type placed runner, Corps of Discovery, but that Unbridled’s Song gelding picked up that designation in a 4 1/2 furlong stakes at Mountaineer - a completely different game than the ten furlong Kentucky Derby. Digging deeper, though, this is a useful female family going back to his 6th dam Icy Reply, the tail-female ancestor of nine stakes winners, though only one at greater than a mile - her grandson Slick Groom was a G2 winner at nine furlongs on the turf.

9. Encino

Encino has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby, but I did want to quickly note that his dam is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, meaning he’s also from the immediate family of horses such as Mr. Greeley and Vekoma. Encino will need 30 days rest to recover from a soft-tissue strain in his right foreleg, but I expect this horse to be a serious contender in the division later this year.

10. T O Password

The first of two Japanese runners, T O Password is a son of 2017 JRA Best Dirt Horse Copano Rickey, a winner of the ten furlong Tokyo Daishoten. T O Password’s dam, T O Rachel, was a three-time winner at up to seven furlongs, and while she has gotten four winners from as many starters, none of the other three have won at distances greater than 7 1/2 furlongs. However, she was a daughter of King Kamehameha, a leading sire and broodmare sire in Japan who was a winner of the 1 1/2 mile Japanese Derby as a racehorse. This cross of Copano Rickey’s grandsire Sunday Silence over King Kamehameha has gotten elite route runners such as Ushba Tesoro, who was also by a grandson of Sunday Silence and out of a King Kamehameha mare. I don’t expect physical stamina to be an issue for T O Password.

11. Forever Young

The more highly regarded of the Japanese duo, Forever Young is also by a grandson of Sunday Silence. His sire, Real Steel, was a winner of the nine furlong Dubai Turf and was second in the G1 Tenno Sho at ten furlongs. Real Steel is also a full brother to Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Loves Only You. The cross of Real Steel’s sire Deep Impact over A.P. Indy, the sire of Forever Young’s damsire Congrats, has gotten 5.5% stakes winners in 202 starters, including G1 winners such as Gran Alegria, Shahryar, Al Ain, and Killer Ability. Three of those four are G1 winners at ten furlongs or greater, suggesting that the distance should be no issue for Forever Young. As mentioned earlier, his dam - a winner of the 6 1/2 furlong Santa Ynez Stakes - is a half sister to the dam of Sierra Leone.

12. Track Phantom

Although Track Phantom’s sire Quality Road can get a winner at a route of ground - with offspring such as Abel Tasman, Dunbar Road, Bleecker Street, and Spring Quality all being G1 winners at ten furlongs or greater - I’m not convinced that Track Phantom wants anything to do with this distance. His dam, Miss Sunset, was a graded stakes winning daughter of Into Mischief who never raced past 1 1/16 miles and whose biggest career victory came in the seven furlong Lexus Raven Run Stakes. Her only other starter is a son of Curlin who has found his success as a sprinter, so I don’t think she’s contributing the kind of stamina that Quality Road needs in his mares in order to get a classic runner. Track Phantom should be on or near the lead early, but I don’t think we’ll see him sticking around in the last eighth of a mile.

13. West Saratoga

This is the kind of horse every small owner or breeder dreams of. He’s a son of Exaggerator, who stands for $5,000 in Louisiana, and cost just $11,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale, but he’s earned nearly 42 times his purchase price, with $460,140 in earnings over ten career starts for trainer Larry Demeritte. Being out of an Uncle Mo mare, he’s bred on the same Curlin/Uncle Mo cross as Muth, who cost $2 million at auction as a two-year-old.

I don’t expect stamina to be an issue with West Saratoga - though his sire has never sired a stakes winner at over nine furlongs, that’s likely due more to a lack of high-class runners rather than a lack of ability to get the distance. Exaggerator’s most successful runner, Skippylongstocking, was third in the 2022 Belmont Stakes. With Uncle Mo, the sire of both a Kentucky Derby winner and a Belmont Stakes winner, and Candy Ride on the bottom, there’s plenty of stamina throughout this pedigree for West Saratoga.

14. Endlessly

The question looming over Endlessly is whether he can not only transfer his form to dirt, but whether he can move up on dirt, as even his career-best effort in the Jeff Ruby doesn’t make him a major player in the Kentucky Derby. Endlessly’s sire, Oscar Performance, was a two-time G1 winner at ten furlongs on the turf as a three-year-old, so I don’t expect distance to be a problem for him. While Oscar Performance was a turf horse, four of his ten stakes winners have won stakes on traditional dirt, so he can be a versatile sire, and while I mentioned in my pedigree profile of Endlessly that his pedigree suggests dirt could be an option, the fact that trainer Michael McCarthy stated after the Jeff Ruby that they weren’t considering the Kentucky Derby makes me think that this horse’s future will be on the turf and synthetic.

15. Domestic Product

I talked about Domestic Product after the Tampa Bay Derby in this post. He’s a son of G1 Allen Jerkens Stakes winner Practical Joke, whose offspring have an average winning distance of 6.42 furlongs. While this doesn’t bode well for his ability to get a classic distance, there is a little bit of stamina on the bottom, as he’s out of a mare by Paynter, who was second by a neck in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. However, digging deeper, one again finds more sprint influences, as his second dam Indian Legend was a stakes winning sprinter by Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Cherokee Run. Overall, I think that this colt likely has a nice future as a miler, but I expect the Kentucky Derby distance to be too far.

16. Grand Mo The First

This is a hard-trying colt with a very nice pedigree, but it seems unlikely that he’ll find the kind of improvement he needs to be a contender this weekend. He’s a son of Uncle Mo and is the sixth winner out of his dam, the Giant’s Causeway mare Lillies So Fair, who does have a stakes placed runner at Emerald Downs among her other offspring. This colt is bred on the same direct cross of Uncle Mo with a Giant’s Causeway mare as Family Way, a graded stakes winner at a mile and a half. There’s Kentucky Derby experience in this immediate family, as well, as his dam is a half sister to Florida Derby winner Materiality, who was 6th in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, and to Gazelle Stakes winner My Miss Sophia, who was 2nd in the 2014 Kentucky Oaks.

17. Fierceness

I talked about the Kentucky Derby favorite after his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win, and not much has changed since that evaluation. If he runs his race, which seems to be the biggest question, he should win this. He’s a son of City of Light, for whom ten furlongs was probably a touch too far but who is the sire of UAE Oaks winner Mimi Kakushi at 1 3/16 miles. His dam was a daughter of Travers Stakes winner Stay Thirsty, who was second in the Belmont, and is a half-sister to Wood Memorial winner Outwork, who finished 14th in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. His second dam, Nonna Mia, was a G1 placed runner by Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, and she was a 3/4 sister to Holy Bull winner Cairo Prince, who retired before getting the chance to contest the classic distance. The cross of Quality Road over Bernardini has gotten 17.7% stakes winners in 34 starters, notably including G1 Alabama Stakes winner Dunbar Road. While this isn’t a pedigree that’s screaming out for ten furlongs, I think that Fierceness has the raw ability to handle it, and while he’s tough to trust in this race, especially as the favorite, I think he’s impossible to dismiss.

18. Stronghold

Stronghold is bred on the exceptional Ghostzapper/Distorted Humor nick that has gotten a remarkable 21.1% stakes winners in 52 starters - notably including G1 winner Guarana, a winner of the 1 1/2 mile Coaching Club American Oaks. Stronghold’s dam, Spectator, is bred on a pattern I’m very fond of, as she’s from the same female family as Distorted Humor, the sire of her sire Jimmy Creed. Stronghold’s 7th dam, Gay Sonnet, is the third dam of Distorted Humor.

Ghostzapper will need to do a bit of heavy lifting when it comes to stamina for Stronghold, as his dam was a graded stakes winner at two in the Sorrento but never won at distances beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, and she was out of a daughter of G1 winning sprinter Henny Hughes. However, Ghostzapper can certainly get a router, so I wouldn’t let the distance scare me off Stronghold in here.

19. Resilience

While Resilience’s sire Into Mischief officially has two Kentucky Derby winners, he has yet to see one of his sons cross the wire first on the first Saturday in May. I think Resilience could change that. He’s out of a mare by Smart Strike, who comes from the same genetic branch of family 23b as Into Mischief - that cross has gotten 11.3% stakes winners in 71 starters, though it has yet to get a stakes winner at greater than nine furlongs.

Resilience’s dam, Meadowsweet, was a daughter of the excellent racehorse and broodmare Tranquility Lake, a winner of the ten furlong Yellow Ribbon Stakes in 2000. She’s the dam of three stakes winners by Into Mischief’s great-grandsire Storm Cat: Jalil was a winner of the ten furlong Al Maktoum Challenge Round Three in 2008; After Market was a G1 winner at ten furlongs on turf in the Charles Whittingham Handicap and was a graded stakes winner at up to eleven furlongs; and Courageous Cat was a G1-winning turf miler. Notably, these elite runners in the immediate family were good horses early in their careers, but were better with age, and I think that Resilience could be maturing at the right time for the Kentucky Derby.

20. Society Man

The second son of Good Magic in the field, Society Man comes from his sire’s female family 12c - Good Magic already has produced G2 Remsen Stakes winner Dubyuhnell on this pattern. Society Man traces tail-female to the elite broodmare Battle Creek Girl, the dam of six stakes winners and tail-female ancestor of 25 stakes winners. He’s the second starter in the field out of a Colonel John mare, and his dam was a winner at up to nine furlongs. Notably, the Curlin/Tiznow nick has not been a good one, with only a single stakes winner in 58 starters on the cross. While Society Man could add to that in the future, I don’t see him doing so in the Kentucky Derby.

21. Epic Ride

The AE who has already drawn into the field, Epic Ride is a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame and is out of a Gio Ponti mare. While his dam, Pick a Time, was last in her only start, going 5 1/2 furlongs at Presque Isle Downs, Gio Ponti was a G1 winner at up to eleven furlongs on the turf, so I don’t think distance will post an issue for Epic Ride. This is another colt who’s been showing improvement as of late, so while I don’t expect him to be a factor, he wouldn’t be the craziest longshot to win the Derby off the also-eligible list.

22. Mugatu

Though he’s not in the field at the time of writing, I couldn’t risk leaving Mugatu out of this analysis. He’s a son of Blofeld, who is one of the top regional sires in the country, with 85.7% winners and 8.9% stakes winners in 56 starters. Blofeld is a sire who is consistently moving up his mares, getting an AEI of 1.48 from a CI of 1.13 - meaning that his foals are earning more on average than the average of his mares’ foals by other stallions.

Mugatu was a horse I shortlisted at OBS April, and I discussed him in this video last June. His dam was a daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags, and all three of her foals are winners. This is an extension of the useful Quality Road/Dixie Union nick that has gotten six stakes winners in 60 starters, and which I wrote about on my old blog here. While it would be a longshot for Mugatu to make the gate, and a longer shot for him to win, this is the kind of horse who pays his own bills, and while he’s no West Saratoga when it comes to ROI, he’s another horse who represents the dream of anyone trying to find horses on a budget.

Analysis

I was quite surprised at where I ended up in this year’s Derby - I didn’t have a very strong opinion going into this week, but I’ve found myself continually coming back to one horse in particular, and that’s Resilience. I really liked the way he won the Wood Memorial, visually, and I think that even his Risen Star effort was very solid. My favorite thing about this horse is how unbothered he seems to be by the competition - in the stretch of the Risen Star, Catching Freedom veered in on him twice, and he didn’t budge until Catching Freedom actually made contact with him. I love how he jumped out of the gate eager in the Wood Memorial, but settled nicely behind the leaders before tipping out to make his run. I think that this is the kind of horse who will handle the chaos of the Kentucky Derby well, and while his Beyer figures are a touch behind the field, his figures according to Brisnet and Equibase fit very well. I think we’ll see continued improvement from him in this race, and while I don’t love the 19 post position, I think that he’ll still be able to work out mid-pack trip from there. I never thought I’d pick an Into Mischief in the Kentucky Derby, but there’s enough stamina on the bottom, and enough relaxation in his running style, for me to think that this horse is going to be a major player. At 20-1, I can’t resist picking him on top.

Obviously, the horse to beat is Fierceness, and I think they’re all running for second if he runs his race, but he’s simply too hard to trust as the favorite in here for me to make him my top selection. I respect him, and I think he’ll get a nice trip sitting just off the speed of horses like Dornoch and Track Phantom, but I worry that he needs everything to go his way in order to win. That said, if anyone can make sure he gets the perfect trip he needs, it’s John Velazquez. He’s a legitimate horse and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him win this race by daylight.

Outside of those top two, I have a hard time separating a number of others in here. Just a Touch is an interesting up-and-comer who has the kind of tactical capability and steady speed figure improvement that I like to see in a Kentucky Derby horse, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him get the job done. I also think that Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom are both very legitimate contenders, but I worry about whether they’ll be able to work out a trip. Sierra Leone, in particular, doesn’t strike me as the type of horse who can effectively start and stop the way he may need to in the Kentucky Derby. All three of these are horses that I think have legitimate shots at winning the race and must be used in exactas.

For horses that could round out the tri and super, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dornoch hold on for a piece; it wouldn’t surprise me to see Stronghold put in a nice effort; and I think Forever Young could make a little noise, although I question the quality of the fields he beat in the Middle East.

Wishing all the horses a safe trip this weekend, and wishing all of you a profitable 2024 Kentucky Derby!