A Rainy Derby? Off Track Pedigree Notes

Taking a look at how the Kentucky Derby entrants are bred to handle what is forecasted to be a sloppy racing surface tomorrow

Kentucky Oaks day is well underway, and in addition to the announced scratches of Rodriguez and Grande, the weather has thrown a wrench into the Kentucky Derby handicapping picture. Six horses in the field have prior experience over a wet dirt track, but that leaves 13 horses who will be racing over a wet surface for the first time. Pedigree can help give us some clues as to which horses may be better suited for such a surface, so I’ve taken a look at the field in an attempt to provide some insight for handicappers.

When it comes to a wet surface, I’m generally only inclined to upgrade a horse based on pedigree, not downgrade them, unless they themselves have already proven that they do not handle it as well as a dry track. That said, I will note where horses have siblings or parents who appeared to struggle over a wet track, for those who wish to take that into account. As with my overview of the field from earlier in the week, I’ll be going horse-by-horse with relevant information. For this, however, I’ve compiled the information in what I hope is a more skimmable format. Unfortunately, I was unable to find complete information on the Japanese contenders, but have included whatever information I could find.

1. Citizen Bull

Sire: Into Mischief

• Sire of 18% off track winners in 2,194 starters (16% winners overall)

• Never raced on an off track

Dam: No Joke

• Unraced

• Other foals 0-for-2 over a wet track

  • Dam of Magical Mojo (Uncle Mo), 6th in only attempt over a wet track (0-for-3 lifetime)

  • Dam of Gold Ticket (Medaglia d’Oro), 7th in only attempt over a wet track (0-for-3 lifetime)

Damsire: Distorted Humor

• Sire of 16% off track winners in 3,654 starters (15% winners overall)

• Unplaced in three attempts over an off track

Rating: B+

Despite his siblings being defeated a combined 31 lengths in their attempts over wet tracks, Citizen Bull figures to appreciate the sloppy going, especially as he is expected to get out to the lead where he won’t have to worry about taking dirt in his face. I do not upgrade him over a wet track, but he should handle it just fine.

2. Neoequos

Sire: Neolithic

• Sire of 13% off track winners in 107 starters (15% winners overall)

• Twice placed in three attempts over an off track - 3rd in the G1 Dubai World Cup over a muddy surface and 2nd in the G2 Fayette Stakes over a sloppy surface

Dam: Bold Birdie

• Raced on turf and synthetic her entire career; never raced over a wet dirt track

• None of her three other foals to race have run over an off track

Damsire: Birdstone

• Sire of 14% off track winners in 1,158 starters (12% winners overall)

• Won debut by 12 1/2 lengths over a muddy surface, 8th in the Kentucky Derby over a sloppy track

Rating: B

Neoequos won the only race he truly contested over a wet surface (having lost the rider at the break on debut), as the winner of a six furlong Florida-bred allowance race over a sloppy surface at Gulfstream Park on January 23rd. I do not believe the wet track will hurt him, but I also don’t expect it to move him up significantly.

3. Final Gambit

Sire: Not This Time

• Sire of 19% off track winners in 510 starters (17% winners overall)

• Won the G3 Iroquois Stakes by 8 3/4 lengths over a muddy surface

Dam: Pachinko

• Raced on turf her entire career; never raced over a wet dirt track

• Neither of her two foals to race have run over an off track

Damsire: Tapit

• Sire of 17% off track winners in 2,094 starters (15% winners overall)

• 9th in the Kentucky Derby over a sloppy surface in only off track attempt

Rating: A

The offspring of Not This Time have fared well over a sloppy track, as have those of Final Gambit’s damsire Tapit. The dirt surface is a major question for Final Gambit, and while his female family is all turf, there’s plenty of wet track influence coming from his sire and damsire. I believe he will appreciate a sloppy surface.

5. American Promise

Sire: Justify

• Sire of 19% off track winners in 97 starters (16% winners overall)

• Three-time winner over an off track, including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes over sloppy tracks

Dam: Tapella

• 2nd on debut over a sloppy track in only race over a wet dirt surface

• Other foals are 1-for-3 over a wet track

  • Dam of Hoosier Philly, winner of the Rags to Riches Stakes by 7 1/2 lengths over a sloppy Churchill Downs surface (Hoosier Philly was later 8th in the Charles Town Oaks over a wet fast track and 4th in the G1 Cotillion over a sloppy track)

Damsire: Tapit

• Sire of 17% off track winners in 2,094 starters (15% winners overall)

• 9th in the Kentucky Derby over a sloppy surface in only off track attempt

Rating: A+

American Promise broke his maiden over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park, and while he was well-beaten in his attempt over a sloppy surface at Churchill last September, he seems to be a much improved horse since then, and is bred to relish a wet track, as a half brother to a stakes winner over a sloppy Churchill Downs surface.

6. Admire Daytona

Sire: Drefong

• Japanese stallion statistics unavailable

• Never raced over an off track

Dam: Ice Pastel

• Finished 14th over a muddy track at Sapporo in only off track attempt (unplaced in four career starts)

• Other foals are a combined 2-for-30 over an off dirt track

  • Ice Cave (Maurice) 0-for-21 over an off track, once third over a track rated
    “good” at Kanazawa

  • Red la Glace (Leontes) 2-for-4 over an off track, with wins going a mile over a muddy surface at Hanshin and a sloppy surface at Chukyo

  • Taisei Forte 0-for-5 over an off track, once third over a track rated “good” at Hakodate

Damsire: Shackleford

• Sire of 20% off track winners in 55 starters (15% winners overall)

• Unplaced in three lifetime attempts on an off track

Rating: B+

The presence of Shackleford as a broodmare sire and the success of Admire Daytona’s half-sibling Red la Glace over an off track help to give some confidence that he will handle a sloppy surface. He himself was second to Luxor Cafe by a nose over a good track and finished fourth on debut over a muddy surface.

7. Luxor Cafe

Sire: American Pharoah

• Sire of 16% off track winners in 430 starters (14% winners overall)

• 2-for-2 over an off track in the Rebel Stakes and Preakness Stakes

Dam: Mary’s Follies

• Winner of an allowance over a track rated “good” at Monmouth Park in only attempt on an off dirt track

• Other foals are a combined 3-for-12 over an off track

  • Dam of Cafe Pharoah (American Pharoah), winner of the G1 February Stakes over a sloppy track, the G3 Unicorn Stakes over a good track, and the JPN1 Mile Championship Nambu Hai over a muddy track

Damsire: More Than Ready

• Sire of 14% off track winners in 2,221 starters (14% winners overall)

• Never raced on an off track

Rating: A

American Pharoah was a dominant winner of the Preakness Stakes over a sloppy track, and Luxor Cafe’s full brother was a G1 winner over a wet track. Luxor Cafe himself has won three of his four lifetime starts over an off track, and was beaten just a neck in the losing effort, so I expect a wet track will suit him very well.

8. Journalism

Sire: Curlin

• Sire of 18% off track winners in 1,655 starters (16% winners overall)

• 2-for-2 over a wet track, both in G1 races

Dam: Mopotism

• 1-for-3 over an off track, having broken her maiden over a wet fast track at Santa Anita

• No other foals to race

Damsire: Uncle Mo

• Sire of 15% off track winners in 347 starters (15% winners overall)

• Winner of the G2 Kelso Handicap over a muddy surface in only off track attempt

Rating: A

Although Journalism has never raced over an off track, I expect him to fare very well over such a surface, as his sire has proven to be an excellent wet track influence.

9. Burnham Square

Sire: Liam’s Map

• Sire of 21% off track winners in 551 starters (16% winners overall)

• 2nd on debut in only attempt over an off track

Dam: Linda

• Second and fourth in her two attempts over a good and sloppy track, respectively

• Foals are a combined 3-for-13 over an off track

• Two of three other foals to race have won over an off track

  • Dam of Lindsey (McCracken), 2-for-4 over an off track

  • Dam of Hatch (Fort Larned), 1-for-8 over a wet track

  • Daughter English Charm (English Channel) 0-for-1 over a wet track

Damsire: Scat Daddy

• Sire of 14% off track winners in 707 starters (14% winners overall)

• Broke maiden by 5 1/4 lengths over a muddy track in only off track effort

Rating: A+

Burnham Square has never raced over a wet track but he’s one of the horses in the field I think could potentially move up if the track comes up sloppy - something to keep in mind with a horse who already figures as a contender.

11. Flying Mohawk

Sire: Karakontie

• Sire of 13% off track winners in 196 starters (15% winners overall)

• Raced on turf entire career

Dam: Bonbons Fleur

• Beaten 52 1/4 lengths on debut over a sloppy Churchill Downs surface in only dirt attempt (0-for-3 lifetime)

• No other foals to race

Damsire: Twirling Candy

• Sire of 15% off track winners in 1,273 starters (16% winners overall)

• Never raced on an off track

Rating: C

While I generally don’t downgrade horses over a wet track until they themselves have proven they don’t handle it, I find it tough to expect Flying Mohawk to show any improvement with an off track, as both his sire and damsire produce subpar results with their runners over wet dirt surfaces.

12. East Avenue

Sire: Medaglia d’Oro

• Sire of 16% off track winners in 1,334 starters (15% winners overall)

• Winner of the G1 Travers Stakes over a sloppy track in only off track attempt

Dam: Dance Music

• Unraced

• No other foals to race

Damsire: Ghostzapper

• Sire of 19% off track winners in 1,020 starters (15% winners overall)

• 2-for-2 over a wet surface, including the G3 Philip H. Iselin Breeders' Cup over a sloppy track

Rating: B

East Avenue has never raced over an off track but should handle it just fine. While his sire is not a particularly prolific wet track influence, his foals do fine over a wet surface, and East Avenue’s damsire Ghostzapper is a very good off track stallion, so I don’t expect him to struggle with the off track (provided he makes it into the clear, as this seems to be the type of horse who needs the lead and I would not be surprised if a muddy track exacerbated that trait).

13. Publisher

Sire: American Pharoah

• Sire of 16% off track winners in 430 starters (14% winners overall)

• 2-for-2 over an off track in the Rebel Stakes and Preakness Stakes

Dam: Indian Pride

• Never raced on an off track

• No other foals to race

Damsire: Proud Citizen

• Sire of 14% off track winners in 1,381 starters (14% winners overall)

• Unplaced in two attempts over a wet track

Rating: B+

Publisher has never won a race, but he’s placed in both of his attempts over a wet track against maiden special weight company. His sire is a useful off track influence, and while the bottom half of his pedigree doesn’t suggest he’ll move up, I don’t expect a wet track to hamper him.

14. Tiztastic

Sire: Tiz the Law

• Sire of 20% off track winners in 25 starters (17% winners overall)

• Finished 3rd by 3/4 length over a sloppy track in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in only off track effort

Dam: Keesha

• Unraced

• Other foals are 1-for-3 over a wet track

  • Interpolate (Into Mischief) broke her maiden over a good track at Aqueduct

Damsire: Tapit

• Sire of 17% off track winners in 2,094 starters (15% winners overall)

• 9th in the Kentucky Derby over a sloppy surface in only off track attempt

Rating: B+

While the sample size is still small, offspring of Tiz the Law seem to handle an off track with no issue, and with the additional source of Tapit on the bottom, I think Tiztastic will do fine over a sloppy track.

15. Render Judgment

Sire: Blame

• Sire of 18% off track winners in 809 starters (15% winners overall)

• Winner of the Curlin Stakes over a good surface in only off track effort

Dam: Barbara Gordon

• Never raced over an off dirt track

• No other foals to race

Damsire: Commissioner

• Sire of 16% off track winners in 390 starters (13% winners overall)

• Raced twice over an off track: winner of the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup over a good track and second in the G2 Peter Pan over a sloppy track

Rating: B+

Both Blame and Commissioner sire a greater percentage of winners over an off track than their overall win percent, and with that in mind, Render Judgment should handle a wet surface very well.

16. Coal Battle

Sire: Coal Front

• Sire of 17% off track winners in 85 starters (16% winners overall)

• Never raced over an off track

Dam: Wolfblade

• Two-time winner over a wet track, only once worse than fourth in nine attempts on an off track

• No other foals to race

Damsire: Midshipman

• Sire of 18% off track winners in 1,348 starters (16% winners overall)

• Never raced over an off track

Rating: A+

Coal Battle’s past performances over an off track speak for themselves here, as he’s undefeated in two attempts on a wet surface, and won both of those by open lengths. His dam was also a proficient wet track horse, and while I have some concerns about the distance with Coal Battle, I think he will be very effective with some moisture on the track.

17. Sandman

Sire: Tapit

• Sire of 17% off track winners in 2,094 starters (15% winners overall)

• 9th in the Kentucky Derby over a sloppy surface in only off track attempt

Dam: Distorted Music

• Finished 4th of 5 by 9 1/4 lengths in only attempt over a wet track

• Other foals are 0-for-3 on a wet track

  • She Can’t Sing (Bernardini) responsible for all three of those attempts, finishing third in the Houston Ladies’ Classic over a muddy track and fourth in both other attempts over an off track

Damsire: Distorted Humor

• Sire of 16% off track winners in 3,654 starters (15% winners overall)

• Unplaced in two attempts over an off track

Rating: B

Tapit is a useful off track sire, and while Distorted Music herself was ineffective in her only attempt over an off track, Sandman’s best sibling ran respectably enough in two of her three tries over a wet track (and may have been overmatched in the G2 Golden Rod Stakes in the third attempt). I don’t expect an off track to be a problem for him.

18. Sovereignty

Sire: Into Mischief

• Sire of 18% off track winners in 2,194 starters (16% winners overall)

• Never raced on an off track

Dam: Crowned

• Unraced

• Foals are 0-for-4 on a wet track, with three in-the-money placings

  • Jane Grey (Into Mischief) responsible for all four attempts, ran a career-best 90 Equibase speed figure when finishing second in a Saratoga allowance race over a sloppy track

Damsire: Bernardini

• Sire of 17% off track winners in 1,679 starters (15% winners overall)

• Winner of the G2 Jim Dandy by nine lengths over a sloppy track in only wet track effort

Rating: A

Sovereignty has never raced over a sloppy track, but his full sibling recorded a career-best Equibase speed figure in one of her four attempts on an off track, and I believe he’s bred to fare very well over a wet surface.

19. Chunk of Gold

Sire: Preservationist

• Sire of 22% off track winners in 85 starters (15% winners overall)

• 2-for-3 over a wet track, both in allowance races, and finished third in his only other attempt

Dam: Play for Gold

• Never raced on an off track

• Other foals are 1-for-4 on an off track

  • Full sibling Band of Gold winner of the Martha Washington Stakes over a sloppy track

Damsire: Cairo Prince

• Sire of 15% off track winners in 883 starters (14% winners overall)

• Never raced on an off track

Rating: A+

Offspring of Preservationist have done exceptionally well over a wet track, and he himself was proficient over a wet surface. Chunk of Gold’s full sibling is a stakes winner over a sloppy track, and I expect he’s the kind of horse who could move up over an off track.

20. Owen Almighty

Sire: Speightstown

• Sire of 21% off track winners in 1,928 starters (18% winners overall)

• Winner of the G2 Churchill Downs Handicap over a good surface, an allowance optional claiming race over a muddy track, second in the Jaipur Handicap over a sloppy track

Dam: Tempers Rising

• Broke her maiden over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs and finished second over a muddy track in her only other off track effort

• No other foals to race

Damsire: Bayern

• Sire of 19% off track winners in 359 starters (16% winners overall)

• Never raced on an off track

Rating: A++

If there’s one horse in this field who I think moves up the most with a wet track, it’s Owen Almighty. Speightstown is the only stallion (besides his son Munnings) whose offspring I will blindly bet on an off track, and his numbers back that up, as they win 21% of the time over a wet track. Owen Almighty’s dam achieved her only career victory over a wet track, and her sire gets 19% off track winners. While I still have some questions about whether Owen Almighty is a mile and a quarter type of horse, I think the off track makes him very interesting tomorrow.

21. Baeza

Sire: McKinzie

• Sire of 12% off track winners in 25 starters (13% winners overall)

• Winner of the G2 Alysheba over a good track at Churchill Downs and finished 2nd by 1/2 length in the G2 San Pasqual over a sloppy track

Dam: Puca

• 2-for-2 over a wet track

  • Broke maiden by 16 lengths over a good track, winner of an optional claimer by 6 1/4 lengths over a good track

• Foals are a combined 3-for-6 on a wet track, with two second-place finishes

  • Gunning (Gun Runner) two-time winner of allowance races over muddy and sloppy tracks, stakes placed in the Dig a Diamond Stakes over a muddy track

  • Dornoch (Good Magic) second on debut over a sloppy track and winner of the G2 Remsen Stakes over a muddy track

Damsire: Big Brown

• Sire of 13% off track winners in 289 starters (13% winners overall)

• Never raced on an off track

Rating: B+

While McKinzie’s offspring are not necessarily outperforming themselves on wet tracks, he raced well in both of his attempts over off tracks. Baeza’s dam performed very well in both of her off track attempts, although both were tracks rated only “good” and it seems quite likely there will be a bit more moisture in the track tomorrow, and both of her foals to race over an off track are winners on wet tracks, which gives me confidence that Baeza will handle the surface fine, despite average off track stats from his sire and damsire.