Kentucky Derby Pedigree Rundown
A quick snippet on each of the possible contenders
Kentucky Derby week is upon us, and with it all of the questions, opinions, and potential handicapping angles a racing fan could possibly ask for. With all eyes on Churchill Downs this Saturday, there’s really nothing else to be done but write about the Kentucky Derby contenders.
This is not a handicapping exercise - while I believe pedigree can give some small insight into a horse’s distance capabilities and overall talent, the horse as an individual is far more important than their ancestors when it comes to answering those all-important questions such as whether a horse can get the mile and a quarter distance, still has improvement in their form, or how they’ll handle the chaos of a twenty-horse field.
While pedigree is rather far down my list of considerations at this point in the Kentucky Derby picture when it comes to picking a winner, it’s still enjoyable to take a look at the contenders and the various pedigree combinations that can come up with a Kentucky Derby starter, so that’s what we’re going to do today.
I’d also like to take a quick moment to thank all of my newest subscribers who are here after my podcast appearances on this topic this past weekend. If you haven’t watched, I talked with Matthew at Trust the Prophets and Craig at Derbyologist about Derby pedigrees and, in the latter case, pedigree analysis in general. Both of their YouTube channels have some fantastic content, and I’d highly recommend checking them out.
#1 Forte - 190 Points
There’s not much to say about Forte that I didn’t already say back in my first blog post for this website, which you can read here. The short version is that he’s bred to be a classy racehorse, and he’s lived up to that. Four of the last five Eclipse champion two-year-old males have traced tail-female to Forte’s 10th dam, La Troienne, and that mare’s family includes Kentucky Derby winners Super Saver, Smarty Jones, Sea Hero, and Go For Gin, as well as Kentucky Derby runners-up Bluegrass Cat, Easy Goer, and Bimelech. He’s also linebred to the family of his damsire Blame, whose third dam Special is the second dam of his paternal great-great-grandsire Sadler’s Wells - she appears 6x5 in his pedigree.
His pedigree isn’t screaming out that ten furlongs will be his best game, but with his professionalism and relaxed running style, I don’t think the distance is a reason to jump ship if you’re backing the favorite on Saturday.
#2 Practical Move - 160 Points
Practical Move is by Into Mischief’s son Practical Joke, which suggests there could be some distance limitations there, although the fact that he’s out of a mare by Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex might help to balance that out. He is also from the immediate family of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso, with whom he shares his third dam. More distantly, his Lowe family 2f is the family of horses such as Kentucky Derby starter Flameaway and stallions such as Pulpit, Tale of the Cat, and Johannesburg. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a big stallion career ahead of this guy once he retires.
Overall, I’m skeptical of his ability to get the distance not so much because of his pedigree as because of his high-energy running style, but he’s clearly a horse with a lot of talent who I expect we’ll be hearing more from later in the year.
#3 Angel of Empire - 154 Points
Angel of Empire is another horse who I did a deep dive on, which you can read here. As I mentioned in that post, Angel of Empire is an example of an interesting linebreeding pattern, as both his sire Classic Empire and his damsire’s sire Bernardini are members of Lowe family 4m. His dam was similarly linebred to the genetically identical family 4r, as her sire To Honor and Serve and damsire Carson City are both members of that family.
The Empire Maker sire line gives some confidence that stamina won’t be an issue with Angel of Empire, and while the bottom of his pedigree is a bit more geared toward sprint or middle distances, he doesn’t strike me as a horse with distance limitations.
#4 Tapit Trice - 150 Points
Tapit Trice is another horse on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard who I’ve already written about in depth - you can check that out here. He’s from the immediate female family of champion two-year-old filly Jaywalk and Kentucky Derby starter Mission Impazible, and is bred on the same Tapit/Unbridled’s Song sire line cross as horses such as 3-time G1 winner Unique Bella and graded stakes winner Tacitus, who was third in the Kentucky Derby and second in the Belmont Stakes.
Back before he became the sire of four Belmont Stakes winners, Tapit was regarded as a sire of sprinters and middle distance horses, but it’s obvious that distance won’t be an issue with this son of Tapit, whose damsire Dunkirk finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes. This is one horse you can trust won’t be running out of steam at the end of the race.
#5 Two Phil’s - 123 Points
This is the final horse on the leaderboard who you can read my full analysis of by clicking here. I love the linebreeding in his pedigree, as he is from the same female family 16h as his sire Hard Spun. Interestingly, his damsire, General Quarters, and second damsire, Birdstone, also share that same mitochondrial haplotype “L3a1b" with family 16h.
The immediate cross of Hard Spun and General Quarters raises some questions about whether ten furlongs will be his ideal trip, but the presence of Birdstone as his second damsire and this colt’s running style help to assuage those concerns.
#6 Lord Miles - 105 Points
Lord Miles is by the two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, who is known for being a stamina influence, and out of an unraced mare by Majestic Warrior, a horse who was an excellent two-year-old but probably had some distance limitations. His dam is a half sister to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and Eclipse champion two-year-old filly Caledonia Road, so there’s clearly ability in the immediate family. His second dam also produced stakes winner One of a Kind and multiple graded stakes winner Officiating.
The question mark with Lord Miles isn’t so much the distance as his ability, as the Wood Memorial was his first good race since he won on debut, and it doesn’t look to have been a particularly strong edition of that prep.
#7 Derma Sotogake (JPN) - 100 Points
American handicappers might be put off a bit by a son of multiple G1 winning sprinter Mind Your Biscuits in the Kentucky Derby, but there’s plenty to like about the pedigree of Derma Sotogake, even at the classic distance. His dam was a winner of the Kanto Oaks at 2100 meters (about 10 1/2 furlongs), and his sire has already produced a stakes winner at 2000 meters in Japan.
This is one of those wildcard horses who you have to take a long look at. Especially with a win at 9 1/2 furlongs already under his belt, I don’t think distance will be an issue for this Japanese contender.
#8 Kingsbarns - 100 Points
Kingsbarns is by Uncle Mo, who has sired both a Kentucky Derby winner and a Belmont Stakes winner, and the bottom half of his pedigree has some decent stamina influences. His dam is a graded stakes placed daughter of Tapit who never raced past 1 1/8 miles but broke her maiden at a mile and was graded stakes placed at 1 1/16 miles. Her dam, Temperence Gift, was an unraced daughter of Kingmambo, who was best at seven furlongs to a mile, but Temperence Gift produced Gozzip Girl, a G1 winner at ten furlongs, when crossed with the stamina influence of Dynaformer.
This lightly raced but undefeated son of Uncle Mo has a lot of questions to answer, but he’s already won at 9 1/2 furlongs and I think there’s enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest ten furlongs is within his capabilities.
#9 Raise Cain - 64 Points
The second son of Violence in the field, Raise Cain is out of a mare by Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid. While that mare, Lemon Belle, got her only career win going six furlongs, she was a half sister to Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner Unrivaled Belle, who in turn produced the two-time Eclipse Champion Unique Bella, a stakes winner from 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 furlongs.
His pedigree suggests that middle distances might be his best game, but he has to prove he’s good enough for the distance question to even matter, and to date he hasn’t shown that he’s as good as the best of this group.
#10 Rocket Can - 60 Points
I was always someone who said that if Into Mischief got a Kentucky Derby winner, he’d be beating me in doing so. Well, he’s had two now (though he has yet to have one cross the wire first on the first Saturday in May), but - perhaps naively - I’m still a bit of a skeptic when his offspring first stretch out. At any rate, I don’t think Rocket Can is the horse that changes my mind. He does have a solid bottom half to his pedigree, as his dam is a daughter of Tapit out of the G1 winning Tiznow mare Tough Tiz’s Sis. The latter was probably best at 1 1/16 miles, as she fell short every time she raced at nine or ten furlongs.
I don’t think the distance does Rocket Can any favors, and based on his previous efforts he’ll need a few favors to be a win contender on Saturday.
#11 Hit Show - 60 Points
Hit Show is by Candy Ride and out of a Tapit mare named Actress who was twice a graded stakes winner at nine furlongs. She flattened out a bit when finishing fourth in the ten furlong Alabama Stakes, but I wouldn’t fault her too much for that. Her dam, 2009 Canadian champion three-year-old filly Milwaukee Appeal, was three times placed in stakes races at 1 3/16 to 1 1/4 miles, including a third place finish in Canada’s Queen’s Plate stakes and a second place finish in the Alabama.
I think the distance will be a good fit for Hit Show, but I’m not sure that’s enough to get him in the winner’s circle.
#12 Confidence Game - 57 Points
This is one of the most fun pedigrees in the whole race, with lots of intriguing linebreeding and being out of a half sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta and G1 winner Balance (remember back when Zenyatta was “Balance’s sister” and not vice versa?). His sire, Candy Ride, is from the same mitochondrial haplotype “I2a1” as him and his damsire Bernardini are. Candy Ride’s sire, Ride the Rails, was from the same female family 4m as Bernardini, as was Ride the Rails’ sire Cryptoclearance.
I don’t think distance should be a concern with Confidence Game, but the fact that he hasn’t been seen since his win in the Rebel back in February does raise some questions.
#13 Verifying - 54 Points
As a son of Triple Crown winner Justify and a half brother to Eclipse champion Midnight Bisou, there’s plenty of quality in Verifying’s pedigree. His dam, Diva Delite, was a winner at 1 1/16 and was a daughter of Repent, whose best races came at 1 1/16 miles but was beaten only half a length when finishing second in the Travers at ten furlongs. He is also a half brother to stakes placed winner Stage Left, who found most of his success at sprint distances but did finish third in the one mile Sapling Stakes as a two-year-old. Justify hasn’t had a chance yet to prove himself as a sire of stamina, but obviously he was talented enough to win at up to twelve furlongs.
Verifying is the type of horse who could probably get the ten furlong distance with the right trip, though his female family seems to have been better going a little shorter.
#14 Sun Thunder - 54 Points
It’s hard to have confidence in Sun Thunder’s ability to get ten furlongs. I’ve already mentioned that I’m inclined to be skeptical of Into Mischief’s offspring going a mile and a quarter, and there’s not much on the bottom half of his pedigree or in his performances to inspire additional confidence. His dam, Greenfield d’Oro, was a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro - who, in my opinion, needs some stamina on the bottom in order for his offspring to get more than nine furlongs. Sun Thunder does not get that, as his second dam was 2007 Eclipse champion female sprinter Maryfield, who has not produced a winner at distances past a mile even with stallions such as Tapit and Candy Ride.
#15 Mage - 50 Points
Mage ran a fantastic race in the Florida Derby, making a big move past Forte only to get run down by the reigning champion late. I think that we’re just seeing the beginning of Good Magic’s offspring in the Triple Crown - he’s unique among sons of Curlin as a champion two-year-old. Ten furlongs might have been a touch farther than his best game, although he was second behind Triple Crown winner Justify in the Kentucky Derby, but I don’t think his offspring should be dismissed at the classic distance. Mage’s dam, Puca, was a stakes winner at a mile seventy yards who finished second in the 9f Gazelle Stakes as a three-year-old. Her other three career wins came at 1 1/16 miles, but she was second beaten a nose in a ten furlong allowance race on the turf at Belmont, so I don’t think that’s a result of her not being able to go farther.
I think Mage will be able to get the distance, and he clearly has a lot of talent, but I’m not sure whether he’s quite ready to do better than his grandsire Curlin and win the Kentucky Derby in his fourth start.
#16 Disarm - 46 Points
Disarm is a son of Gun Runner from the female family that also gave us Angel of Empire in this year’s Kentucky Derby - his third dam, White Jasmine, is the fourth dam of the Arkansas Derby winner. Thus far, Gun Runner’s offspring have found the most success at middle distances, but he is the sire of Preakness Stakes winner Early Voting and the fact that Disarm is out of a Tapit mare helps. The Gun Runner/Tapit cross brings together the best of the Winchell Thoroughbreds stallions, and he already has G1 winner Society out of a Tapit mare.
Based on his race in the Louisiana Derby, I don’t think the distance is a concern with Disarm. His effort in the Lexington Stakes was just good enough to get him in the starting gate, and I think he’ll give a good account of himself in the Kentucky Derby, though I doubt that makes him a win contender.
#17 Reincarnate - 45 Points
Reincarnate was a big buzz horse going into the Rebel Stakes and hasn’t embarrassed himself in his two preps at Oaklawn Park behind Angel of Empire. His dam, Allanah, was a daughter of Scat Daddy who was a stakes winner at 6 1/2 furlongs, but she was a two-time winner at a mile. Ten furlongs was probably too far for Allanah, who finished last in the Maple Leaf Stakes in her only try at the distance, and as mentioned nine furlongs was probably the ideal distance for Good Magic, but in a race where very few horses are really bred for ten furlongs, the fact that he clearly wants a route distance is good enough for me. He’s a big, powerful horse, and if you like him, I don’t think the distance is reason to look elsewhere.
#18 Jace’s Road - 45 Points
Jace’s Road is by Quality Road and out of a Silver Deputy mare who was a multiple stakes placed sprinter. An interesting note on him is that his third dam is a half sister to Hall of Famer Silverbulletday, but overall I don’t think he’s a serious contender in this race.
Quality Road was better going 8-9 furlongs, there’s a lack of stamina on the bottom half of his pedigree, and the fact that he was backing up in the Louisiana Derby make me think that the Derby distance is going to be too much for him.
#19 Skinner - 45 Points
Skinner is a son of Curlin out of the graded stakes winning sprinter Winding Way, a daughter of Malibu Moon who was a full sister to the multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Kauai Katie. Their dam, the More Than Ready mare More Than Pretty, was a stakes winner at five furlongs on the turf, so there’s not a lot of stamina on the bottom of this pedigree. That said, Curlin is generally considered a stamina influence, so it’s not entirely surprising that Skinner has had some success going two turns.
Despite a very sprint-oriented bottom, I don’t think the ten furlongs will compromise his late kick. The bigger question is whether he can work out a trip from the back of the pack.
#20 Continuar (JPN) - Invite
The second Japanese contender in the race, Continuar was considered a bit behind Derma Sotogake in Japan, but he’s bred on a similar pattern. Like Derma Sotogake, he’s by an American sprinter in Drefong, and he comes from a very successful female family. His dam is a 3/4 sister to Japanese Horse of the Year and Filly Triple Crown winner Almond Eye, who set a world record for 2400 meters in the Japan Cup, so there’s no lack of stamina on the bottom here. Drefong has also produced Japanese 2,000 Guineas winner Geoglyph out of a mare by Continuar’s damsire King Kamehameha, so I’m not worried at all about this distance for this colt.
#21 Cyclone Mischief - 45 Points
As a son of Into Mischief who has been fading in his Derby preps at Gulfstream Park, this isn’t a horse I expect to thrive over the ten furlong trip if he starts in the race. His first two dams were unable to win in a combined five starts, although his dam is a 3/4 sister to Southwest Stakes winner Suddenbreakingnews, who finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby. His third dam was a graded stakes winner who produced G1 Las Virgenes Stakes and Santa Anita Oaks winner Composure, along with graded stakes winning full brother Ready Set.
If he makes it into the race, I don’t expect Cyclone Mischief to be anywhere near at the finish going ten furlongs.
#22 Major Dude - 40 Points
I’m a big fan of this horse, but I don’t think dirt is his best game. He’s from the first crop of Bolt d’Oro, whose foals are game as can be but seem to be struggling to get past a mile and a sixteenth. He’s out of the Distorted Humor mare Mary Rita, whose two career wins came at a mile and seventy yards and who was stakes placed at seven furlongs. She’s a full sister to the mare Unbound, who was also stakes placed going seven furlongs. His third dam is the Hall of Famer Personal Ensign, so there’s certainly no lack of quality here, but I don’t know if the surface or distance are really going to be where he does his best running.
#23 Mandarin Hero (JPN) - 40 Points
This Japanese contender made a great impression in his first U.S. start, finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby to Practical Move and making that rival work hard for the win. Like his countrymates, he’s by an American stallion - Eclipse champion two-year-old Shanghai Bobby. I think there are a few more distance questions with Mandarin Hero than the others - Shanghai Bobby was by Harlan’s Holiday and out of a mare by the sprinter Orientate. His best U.S. offspring was the Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up Shancelot. Mandarin Hero is out of a mare by Fuji Kiseki, the 1994 JRA champion two-year-old colt whose biggest career win came at a mile in the G1 Asahi Hai Sansai Stakes, though he was a winner over 2,000 meters in the G2 Yayoi Sho. His influence has primarily been as a sire of sprinter/milers such as Straight Girl, Danon Chantilly, Sadamu Patek, Fine Grain, and Koiuta, but he could certainly get top-class routers, such as Japanese 2,000 Guineas winner Isla Bonita and Japan Cup Dirt winner Kane Hekili.
I’m a little more concerned about the distance for Mandarin Hero than Derma Sotogake or Continuar, but he will be a live longshot if he makes it into the field.
#24 King Russell - 40 Points
The final horse on the also eligible list at the moment, King Russell earned his Kentucky Derby points when finishing second in the Arkansas Derby. He’s by the Giant’s Causeway stallion Creative Cause, a stallion who I consider to be an excellent value sire, and out of a mare by Kentucky Derby runner-up Proud Citizen. His first two dams were unraced, but his second dam was a half to two stakes winning sprinters, and his dam is a full sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can, the dam of a stakes winner by Tapit.
There’s certainly quality in the pedigree of King Russell, and no reason to outright dismiss his chances of getting ten furlongs, but he’d be a longshot for a reason if by some chance there are enough defections to get him into the race.