Breeding For The Belmont
How some of the expected contenders may be projected to fare in the Test of the Champion
There is quite the list of potential entries for the Belmont Stakes on June 10th, with a combination of horses coming back from the Kentucky Derby, horses coming from the Preakness, and horses that have just begun to come into their own.
The Belmont Stakes is known as the Test of the Champion, and most likely none of them will ever contest another race at the mile and a half distance. As a result, not many horses in North America are bred to excel going twelve furlongs, but there are pedigree influences that have been exceptionally productive in this race. Looking at the projected field, there will be no lack of horses in this group who should be able to get the marathon distance of the Belmont Stakes.
The most prominent example of a pedigree influence that has had massive success in the race over the last decade would be A.P. Indy. In the last ten Belmont Stakes going a mile and a half (the 2020 edition was run at 1 1/8 miles), six winners have carried the blood of Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, including four by A.P. Indy’s grandson Tapit. In the current projected field (note that this was written prior to its release), eight of the fourteen horses considering the Belmont Stakes carry the blood of A.P. Indy, including Tapit Trice by Tapit, and four - Red Route One, Hit Show, Arcangelo, and Kingsbarns - out of mares by Tapit.
Tapit himself was once regarded as a sire of primarily sprinters and middle distance horses, as his early crops tended toward precocity. However, since Tonalist’s Belmont Stakes win in 2014, he’s proven without a doubt that his offspring can go the distance with the right mare. Tonalist was out of a mare by Pleasant Colony, who won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness before finishing third in the Belmont Stakes. Tapit’s second Belmont winner, Creator, was out of the mare Morena, who was a champion at two, three, and four in her native Peru. She was able to win stakes in Peru at 1 3/8 miles and 1 1/2 miles, so it’s unsurprising that Creator was able to excel at a route of ground.
The year after Creator won the Belmont, Tapit’s Tapwrit gave his sire a third winner in the classic race. Tapwrit’s pedigree was much less route-oriented than his sire’s first two Belmont winners, being out of a mare by the graded stakes winner sprinter Successful Appeal. That mare, Appealing Zophie, was a G1 winner going seven furlongs at two, and also won the G3 Silverbulletday at a mile and a sixteenth at three. However, Appealing Zophie got some stamina influence from her dam, Zophie, who was a daughter of Hawkster, a graded stakes winner at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 miles and also the damsire of Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex. Zophie was out of a mare by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, the sire of the aforementioned A.P. Indy.
In 2021, Tapit’s two-year-old champion Essential Quality won the Belmont Stakes. His dam was a multiple stakes placed sprinter by Elusive Quality and a half sister to champion two-year-old Folklore, so his pedigree is the least route-oriented of his sire’s four Belmont Stakes winners. However, there was more than enough class to make up for the slightly more speed-oriented bottom half of his pedigree, and he himself was a classy, tactical individual who was also probably a few steps better than the rest of his crop.
Tapit Trice’s pedigree certainly doesn’t lack stamina on the bottom. His dam is by Dunkirk, a son of Unbridled’s Song who finished second in the 2009 Belmont Stakes. He’s a horse many people - myself included - have seen as an interesting horse for this race from the start. His biggest obstacle will be his late-running style, which doesn’t generally fit the Belmont Stakes. However, he has a huge stride and showed in the Florida Derby that he has the ability to steadily improve position throughout the course of the race. I think the fact that he doesn’t have a turn of foot as much as a steady, grinding move makes him less likely to be compromised by the race shape in the Belmont. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him well within range of the leaders by the time they hit the turn, similar to his Blue Grass Stakes effort.
Red Route One should also appreciate the Belmont distance, being a son of Gun Runner and out of a half sister to Paddy O’Prado, who was a two-time winner at ten furlongs, including the G1 Secretariat Stakes, and was beaten just a length in his only try at a mile and a half. Twelve furlongs might have been a touch too far, as it is for many horses, but I don’t think Red Route One will struggle with the distance. Like Tapit Trice, his running style is the biggest issue for him in this race, but he showed the ability to sit fairly close to a slow pace in the Preakness and might be able to get a decent mid-pack trip in the Belmont.
Hit Show is by Gun Runner’s sire Candy Ride, and I think the distance should fit him nicely as well. He ran a very solid race in the Kentucky Derby, stalking the hot early pace and staying on well enough for fifth. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue here - his dam was a winner at nine furlongs and his second dam, Milwaukee Appeal, placed three times in stakes races from 1 3/16 to 1 1/4 miles. He could be a sneaky horse in this spot with a good stalking trip.
Kingsbarns faded pretty severely in the Kentucky Derby after setting a ridiculous pace, but I don’t think a lack of stamina is to blame. His sire, Uncle Mo, is the sire of last year’s Belmont Stakes winner out of a mare by Tapit’s sire Pulpit, so Kingsbarns is bred very similarly to Mo Donegal and, like that horse, is also trained by Todd Pletcher. Twelve furlongs is a lot different than ten furlongs, but if he could set or stalk a moderate pace, I think he has the stamina to go on with it.
Since 2000, there is one Lowe family that has had three members win the Belmont Stakes - female family 8f includes the Belmont Stakes-winning half siblings Jazil and Rags to Riches, as well as 2004 Belmont upsetter Birdstone, who shares a more distant common tail-female ancestor with that pair. This year, Peter Pan winner Arcangelo could make a third Belmont Stakes winner under his third dam, Better Than Honour, the dam of Jazil and Rags to Riches. With a dam by Tapit out of a half-sister to two Belmont Stakes winners, there’s plenty of Belmont precedent here. His sire, Arrogate, never raced past 1 1/4 miles, but I don’t doubt that he can get a horse to win at the Belmont Stakes distance, especially when paired with a mare like this.
Arrogate was by Unbridled’s Song, a son of Belmont Stakes winner Unbridled who never had a Belmont Stakes winner himself but was the sire of the previously mentioned Dunkirk. Arrogate’s damsire, Distorted Humor, was the sire of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer. The Unbridled sire line has also produced Belmont Stakes winners Empire Maker, Birdstone, Summer Bird, and American Pharoah since 2000.
This year, Angel of Empire, a great-grandson of Empire Maker, will look to improve on his third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. His damsire, To Honor and Serve, is a grandson of A.P. Indy, so there are two very useful Belmont Stakes sire lines here, although To Honor and Serve may have had some distance limitations and there’s not a major stamina influence on the bottom of Angel of Empire’s pedigree. While I might have a few questions about whether Angel of Empire will thrive at the 12 furlong distance, he’s a classy horse who would be tough to completely toss.
One of the possible new shooters is Todd Pletcher’s Prove Worthy, a son of Curlin who was most recently seen breaking his maiden by over four lengths at Churchill Downs when stretching out to 1 1/4 miles. His dam was a stakes winner at nine furlongs by First Samurai. Curlin, of course, was beaten just a head in the Belmont Stakes and is the sire of Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice. Prove Worthy’s second dam is by A.P. Indy and is a full sister to Pulpit, the damsire of last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal as well as the sire of Tapit. Clearly, this colt has the breeding to run all day and I don’t think the extra quarter of a mile will bother him - the big question will be whether he’s classy enough to step up into such a tough field off just a maiden win.
Another possibility from the Curlin sire line is Reincarnate, a son of Good Magic who was close to that hot pace in the Kentucky Derby and ended up beaten 24 1/2 lengths. Ten furlongs was probably a touch too far for his dam, the Scat Daddy mare Allanah, and while I think he might be able to get that distance with a better pace setup, I’m not sure that twelve furlongs is going to do him any favors.
Reigning champion two-year-old Forte is one of two probables by Violence, along with Raise Cain. Violence doesn’t strike me as a horse whose offspring will inherently relish going a mile and a half - while he himself was retired before getting the chance to go past a mile and a sixteenth, his sire’s offspring seem to be at their best at middle distances, though Medaglia d’Oro does have Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Talismanic, a winner at distances up to 14 furlongs. A lot is going to depend on the dam’s side and the individual horse’s ability to relax and finish a race in order to get the Belmont distance with these sons of Violence.
Forte has a few things in his favor in that regard. His third dam was also the third dam of Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality, who, as mentioned previously, did not have a particularly route-oriented pedigree. Violence’s dam, Queen Caroline, was a winner at up to 1 1/16 miles by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame, who has produced 2100m Prix de Diane winner Senga. While most of Blame’s most successful foals have been best at distances ranging from seven to nine furlongs, Forte’s class and professionalism will help his cause. He’s another horse I would question at the distance, but I also believe he’s talented and classy enough to make up for it. He’ll be tough to trust at a short price, but he has to be taken seriously. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in a good effort but get a bit tired late, but I also think he’s likely to be a win contender.
Raise Cain looks like he might be bred a little better for the distance, at least based on the sire names in his pedigree, but I’m still a bit skeptical of him going a mile and a half. His dam was by Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid, but her only career win came at six furlongs. She was a half sister to Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner Unrivaled Belle, who in turn produced Unique Bella - a stakes winner from 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 furlongs - by Tapit. In the Kentucky Derby, he settled mid-pack behind the hot pace, and while he did have to check late in the stretch when Kingsbarns backed up into him, he never really looked like he was going to be a threat even before that. I generally consider Lemon Drop Kid a stamina influence, but I’m not confident that the extra quarter of a mile will help Raise Cain turn the tables on the likes of Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire, who both out-finished him in the Kentucky Derby.
Medaglia d’Oro’s influence on this field isn’t limited to his grandsons by Violence. Preakness Stakes winner National Treasure and Sun Thunder are both grandsons of Medaglia d’Oro via their dams. Of the two, I think National Treasure has the better chance to perform well at this distance. In my Kentucky Derby write-up, I expressed concerns about Sun Thunder getting ten furlongs, so I’m not interested in him here.
National Treasure is a little tougher for me to get a feel for. I think his tactical speed helps him when compared to Sun Thunder, as does being by Quality Road instead of Into Mischief (the average winning distance for offspring of Quality Road is 7.5f, whereas Into Mischief’s is 6.8f). He’s already proven the 1 3/16 miles distance of the Preakness was not an issue, but there’s not much stamina on the bottom of his pedigree. His dam was a half to four stakes winners, and none of those nine combined stakes wins came at distances greater than seven furlongs. His half-brother Treasury, by Speightstown, has won at distances up to 8 1/2 furlongs, but I think National Treasure will need the right pace setup to get the Belmont Stakes distance. I have no idea how I feel about him in this spot until the race is drawn.
National Treasure’s stablemate Arabian Lion is also listed as possible for this race off a good-looking win in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard. By Triple Crown winner Justify, out of a mare by Distorted Humor and a second dam by A.P. Indy, his pedigree suggests the distance shouldn’t be a concern. There’s good stamina in his female line as well, as he traces back to Hall of Famer Personal Ensign, who produced two different G1 winners at ten furlongs. I don’t expect him to end up opting for the Belmont, but I don’t think the distance will hurt his chances if he does.
Overall, even though there's certain to be defections from this list of possible entrants, this looks like it should be a very strong lineup for the Belmont Stakes, with a mixture of horses that you can be confident in going a mile and a half and horses that have some question marks but also appear to have the talent to overcome them.